[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 25 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low on 24 Nov UT. There 
were no notable solar flares. A weak C class flare may occur 
today, 25 Nov. All the filaments located on the visible solar 
disk appear stable. The Earth is currently immersed in slow solar 
wind with the speed fluctuating between about 260 km/s and 360 
km/s. A Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and subsequent fast 
wind is expected to arrive at Earth today, 25 Nov. The magnitude 
of the IMF has been about 3 nT to 4 nT and the Bz component has 
been fluctuating mostly between about -1 nT and +2 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000101
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   21000111
      Learmonth            1   10100101
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Norfolk Island       0   10000000
      Gingin               0   10000001
      Camden               1   11000111
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   23320101
      Mawson               1   11110100
      Davis                2   12211000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
26 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 24 Nov UT. 
Conditions are expected to become unsettled to active later today, 
25 Nov, due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of fast wind and a 
possible minor CME impact. No major geomagnetic disturbance is 
expected during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
in the Southern Hemisphere and depressed in the Northern Hemisphere 
during 24 Nov UT. Similar conditions are expected today, 25 Nov. 
If active geomagnetic conditions eventuate today, the conditions 
for HF propagation may depress further in both hemispheres during 
26 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
throughout the Australian region during 24 Nov UT. Conditions 
are expected to be enhanced today, 25 Nov. If active geomagnetic 
conditions eventuate due to the arrival of fast solar wind, the 
conditions for HF radio propagation may depress during 26 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    46000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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