[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 23 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several
C-class flares were observed from region 2454 and 2457, the largest
being a C5.6 flare at 0538 UT from region 2454(N13W53). Region 2454
also produced a longer duration C5.1 flare that lasted from 0137
to 0227 UT, peaking at 0210 UT. Solar wind speed remained quite
stable around 350 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF varied mostly between +/-4 nT during this period. A long
filament irruption was observed in the south-east region resulting
in a CME that became visible in the LASCO C2 imagery from around
0900 UT. This CME does not seem to be earthward directed. Low
levels of solar conditions may be expected for the next three
days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity. Solar
wind stream may start to gain some strength from 25 November
due to a possible coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 7 2111--33
Gingin 1 11100011
Camden 2 12101011
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 4 12211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 14 34522112
Mawson 7 23212122
Davis 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days (23, 24 and 25 November) with the possibility of rise in
activity to unsettled levels on 25 November due to a coronal
hole effect that is expected to take a geoeffective position
around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Minor to mild MUF enhancements observed in low and mid-latitude
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days (23 to 25 November) with the possibility
of minor MUF depressions and minor degradations in HF conditions
on 25 November, especially in high and mid latitude region, due
to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Minor to mild MUF enhancements observed in Australian/NZ regions
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected in this region
for the next three days (23 to 25 November) with the possibility
of minor MUF depressions and minor degradations in HF conditions
on 25 November due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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