[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 20 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             108/58             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind stream did not gain strength to the anticipated levels. 
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from ~450 to 400 km/s 
through the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF stayed positive 
up to around 6 nT during most parts of the day. Solar wind stream 
may further weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours as the coronal 
hole effect seems to have started weakening. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days (20 
to 22 November) with some possibility of C-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32221011
      Cocos Island         3   21221010
      Darwin               5   31221111
      Townsville           6   32221121
      Learmonth            6   32221112
      Alice Springs        5   32221010
      Norfolk Island       4   22220011
      Culgoora             7   31121-32
      Gingin               6   32231011
      Camden               6   32221111
      Canberra             3   22220010
      Launceston           9   33331121
      Hobart              10   -4231013    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    10   32252010
      Casey               19   55431122
      Mawson              17   43444212
      Davis               19   44543111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           36   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15   0213 2345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
21 Nov     7    Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled 
                periods.
22 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The effects of CME and coronal hole remained weaker 
than previously anticipated. Hence geomagnetic activity did not 
increase to expected levels. Activity stayed mostly at quiet 
to active levels on 19 November (UT day). The coronal hole effect 
seems to be weakening. Quiet to unsettled conditions with some 
possibility of isolated active periods is possible on 20 November. 
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline to 
unsettled and then quiet levels over the following two days (21 
and 22 November).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with some depressions 
in the high latitude regions on 19 November. Minor to mild MUF 
depressions may be expected on 20 November, especially in high 
latitude regions due to an expected continued slight rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Conditions are expected 
to remain mostly normal on 21 and 22 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
21 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 18 November 
and is current for 19-20 Nov. MUFs were mostly near predicted 
values across the Australian region with some depressions in 
the Southern regions on 19 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be expected on 20 November, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ 
regions due to an expected continued slight rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels on this day. Conditions are expected to remain 
mostly normal on 21 and 22 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    67600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list