[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 19 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 106/55 104/53
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Today's largest flare was a C1.1 that peaked at 2009 UT. Solar
wind speed mostly varied between 360 km/s to 380 km/s during
the first half of the UT day today. During the second half of
the day the solar wind speed gradually increased to ~500 km/s.
This includes a sudden rise in solar wind speed around 1900 hours
in association with a sudden southward variation in the Bz component
of IMF. Bz mostly varied between +5/-8 nT during earlier hours
of the day. The variations in the solar wind parameters during
the second half of the day seem consistent with the previously
anticipated possible glancing blow from a CME along with the
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
Solar wind stream is likely to remain strong on 19 and 20 November.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days (19 to 21 November) with some possibility of
C-class activity. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 18/0025UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 22122334
Cocos Island 7 12111233
Darwin 11 22122334
Townsville 12 12222344
Learmonth 13 22122335
Alice Springs 10 12122334
Norfolk Island 7 12121233
Culgoora 16 32233344
Gingin 16 22132345
Camden 12 12232334
Canberra 10 32121333
Launceston 13 23232334
Hobart 13 23232334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 20 23252533
Casey 24 44433254
Mawson 36 34234375
Davis 30 34443265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1312 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
20 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Nov 10 Unsettled, down towards quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 17 November
and is current for 18-19 Nov. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels on 18 November (UT day). Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to rise from active to minor storm levels
on 19 November due to the expected effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole and a glancing blow from a CME.
This coronal hole effect may keep the conditions enhanced to
unsettled to minor storm levels on 19 November. Conditions are
then expected to gradually decline to active and then to unsettled
and quiet levels over the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values across 18 November.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be expected on 19 and 20
November, especially in high and some mid latitude regions due
to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
Conditions may gradually return to near normal by 21 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
21 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 18 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. MUFs were mostly near predicted
values across the Australian region on 18 November. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions may be expected on 19 and 20 November,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Conditions
may gradually return to near normal by 21 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 19100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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