[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 21 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             112/63             112/63

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 Nov. 
Expect Very Low solar activity next three days with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares. No earth directed CMEs were observed 
during 20 Nov. Solar wind speed varied between 380 km/s to 420 
km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly Northward with a brief 
Southward excursion to -7nT around 0730UT. Solar wind conditions 
are expected to be at nominal levels over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23321112
      Cocos Island         4   12320101
      Darwin               7   23321112
      Townsville           7   23321112
      Learmonth            8   23321103
      Alice Springs        7   23321102
      Norfolk Island       6   13321012
      Culgoora             4   11221---
      Gingin               5   22320102
      Camden               7   23321112
      Canberra             4   12320001
      Launceston          10   23431112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   12230001
      Casey               19   44541113
      Mawson               8   33331002
      Davis               10   23441001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   4113 2011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     7    Quiet
22 Nov     7    Quiet
23 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions 21-23 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions were observed across 
all regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 20 Nov. Expect similar 
conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    94200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list