[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 14 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 X-ray flare from region 2452 (S07E19). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed decreased to ~350 km/s around 07 UT and has since climbed 
to peak around 510 km/s. Total IMF strength reached a peak of 
12 nT around 15 UT and has since declined to around 5 nT. The 
Bz component most mostly negative until around 14 UT, dipping 
to -9 nT, then fluctuating between +/-8 nT and gradually damping.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   21023423
      Cocos Island         6   11122321
      Darwin              10   21023423
      Townsville          11   21033423
      Learmonth            9   11023432
      Alice Springs        9   11023423
      Norfolk Island       7   21023322
      Culgoora            15   33--33-3
      Gingin               8   11122333
      Camden              13   2--23423
      Canberra             7   11023322
      Launceston          14   12134433
      Hobart              13   --123433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   10135532
      Casey               16   34333333
      Mawson              30   43134456
      Davis               12   22234332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1012 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
16 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic activity across Australia over the last 24 
hours was mostly quiet, with unsettled to active conditions 15-18 
UT, most likely due to an extended period of southward IMF Bz. 
Some unsettled periods are possible on 14-Nov, reaching active 
levels 15-16 Nov due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderate depressions are expected to continue for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for 14-16 Nov. Moderate MUF depressions were observed 
after local dawn in most regions. Moderate depressions are expected 
to continue for the next 3 days, with minor geomagnetic activity 
and low levels of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    76100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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