[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 15 issued 2338 UT on 12 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 13 10:38:20 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 107/57 113/64 113/64
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain so for the next 3 days. A CME first observed
in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 11/2148 UT does not appear to be
geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined gradually from ~600
km/s to ~420 km/s. The total IMF strength remained below 5 nT
and the Bz component was mostly neutral. Mild solar wind disturbance
is possible over the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12220111
Cocos Island 1 01110100
Darwin 3 11210112
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 5 12221202
Alice Springs 3 01220102
Norfolk Island 3 11220012
Culgoora 12 3223--33
Gingin 4 12221201
Camden 4 12221111
Canberra 2 11220100
Launceston 6 12231211
Hobart 3 112201--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 11250000
Casey 13 34432212
Mawson 11 32222134
Davis 10 22342222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 5343 3532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 15 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 15 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov 15 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Magnetic conditions were quiet
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Some active
periods were observed in the Antarctic. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected over the next 3 days as a result of minor coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to continue improving over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. Australian region HF conditions
have started to recover, with only moderate daytime MUF depressions
observed. Further improvement in conditions is expected over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 672 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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