[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 15 10:30:28 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed declined slightly and is currently around 430 km/s. Total 
IMF strength remained below 6 nT for must of 14-Nov. The Bz component 
fluctuated between +/-5 nT for most of the day. Solar wind speed 
is likely to reduce further over the next 2 days, before picking 
up on 17-Nov due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233112
      Cocos Island         3   21112011
      Darwin               5   22122112
      Townsville           8   22233112
      Learmonth            7   22133112
      Alice Springs        6   22132112
      Norfolk Island       6   12232102
      Culgoora            15   ------33
      Gingin               8   32133112
      Camden               8   22233212
      Canberra             7   22232112
      Launceston          12   23243213
      Hobart               8   -2233212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    10   22144211
      Casey               13   43333122
      Mawson              17   34333234
      Davis               16   34434222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   1112 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across Australia over the last 24 
hours were mostly quiet, with unsettled conditions 09-15 UT. 
Brief unsettled periods are expected on 15-16-Nov, possibly reaching 
active levels 17-Nov with the onset of coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions with some slight depressions 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Nov    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for 14-16 Nov. Moderate MUF depressions were observed 
in the southern Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted values with some slight depressions for the next 3 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    62500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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