[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 9 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             108/58             110/60

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 8 Nov, with no C-class or M-class flares. The strongest 
flare was B5.6 observed at 08/0232 UT from Region 2449. The 2-day 
outlook (9-10 Nov) is for very low solar activity with C class 
flares possible. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 
were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind 
in the past 24 hours was between 450 and 600 km/s. It has gradually 
increased over the past 24 hours and the current solar wind speed 
is around 540 km/s. This observed variation in solar winds is 
associated with the waning effects of the 04 Nov CME triggered 
by the M3.7 flare and the approaching very wide, recurrent positive 
northern hemisphere coronal hole. The southern section of this 
coronal hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on 
the solar disk within the next 12-24 hrs. The Bz component of 
IMF ranged between -10 to +10 nT and Bt was between 5-18 nT during 
the UT day (8 Nov). Notably, IMF Bz has been mainly oriented 
southwards for at least 10 hrs of the UT day. The two day (9-10 
Nov) outlook is for the solar winds to increase again in response 
to the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and high 
speed stream associated with the northern coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22133233
      Cocos Island         8   22123232
      Darwin               9   22133223
      Townsville          10   22133233
      Learmonth           10   22133233
      Alice Springs        9   22133223
      Norfolk Island       8   11133232
      Culgoora             9   3113----
      Gingin              13   21134234
      Camden              10   22133233
      Canberra             6   11023132
      Launceston          14   22234243    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    16   11135442
      Casey               16   33343333
      Mawson              48   32244477

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             39   4665 4341     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    25    Active
10 Nov    20    Active
11 Nov    20    Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the past 24 hrs (08 Nov). This moderately active conditions 
are the aftermaths of the 04 Nov CME. The 24 hour outlook (9 
Nov) is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain unsettled and 
at times reach active levels. IMF Bz has been southwards for 
prolonged periods during the last 12 hrs and solar winds are 
still strong (currently 540 km/s), so minor active periods are 
expected. The two day outlook is for possible minor geomagnetic 
storms associated with the approaching northern hemisphere coronal 
hole. There is a chance of aurora sightings on the evenings over 
the next two days (9-10 Nov) from Southern Australian regions, 
such as Tasmania and Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Fair           Fair-poor      Fair-poor
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: The HF conditions has been very poor over the past 24 
hours (08 Nov) due to negative storm effects in ionosphere following 
the passage of the CME. The two day outlook is for HF conditions 
to remain degraded. The onset of high speed solar streams from 
the approaching very large recurrent positive northern coronal 
will further delay the recovery of MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   -33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -10    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
10 Nov     0    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
11 Nov    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the Australasia regions on the UT 
day 08 Nov were strongly degraded. This degradation is due to 
negative storm effects in ionosphere following the passage of 
the CME. The two day outlook is for HF conditions to remain degraded. 
The onset of high speed solar streams from the approaching very 
large recurrent positive northern coronal will further delay 
the recovery of MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 560 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    85700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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