[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 10 10:30:54 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 1312UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate,
with an M3.9 X-ray flare from region 2449 (S13E34) peaking at
09/1312 UT. This region is in decline, with the trailing spot
fragmenting after the flare. A CME associated with the flare
was directed south-east and, from the limited SOHO/LASCO imagery
available, appears not to be geoeffective. Low to moderate solar
activity is expected on 10-Nov, with a 10% probability of M-class
or greater events from region 2449. Low activity is expected
for 11-12 Nov. The solar wind speed has increased from ~500 to
~~600 km/s under the influence of a northern hemisphere coronal
hole. Total IMF strength increased from 5 nT, peaked at 13 nT
and is now 8 nT. The Bz component hovered around -5 nT for much
of the day, and has varied between -9 to +11 nT since then, currently
+3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated until
around 13-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 22332333
Cocos Island 11 22222343
Darwin 10 22222333
Townsville 11 22322333
Learmonth 15 32232434
Alice Springs 11 22322333
Norfolk Island 11 23322233
Culgoora 12 2333233-
Gingin 16 32232444
Camden 12 22332333
Canberra 11 12332333
Launceston 21 23443444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 32 24555533
Casey 16 33342234
Mawson 34 54334356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 0002 4353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 25 Active
11 Nov 20 Active
12 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the last 24 hours over the
Australian region were mostly quiet, with brief unsettled to
active periods in some locations. Some minor storm periods were
observed in the Antarctic region. Continuing active periods and
possible storm periods at higher latitudes are likely 10-11 Nov,
especially if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion. Conditions
are expected to ease from late on 12-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on 8 November
and is current for 9-11 Nov. Observed MUFs for the Australian
region were moderately degraded over the last 24 hours and are
expected to remain so over the next 3 days, due to disturbed
geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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