[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 15 issued 2348 UT on 07 Nov 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 8 10:48:18 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 7 Nov, with 3 C-class flares from the East quadrant of the 
solar disk (Regions 2448, 2449 and 2550). There were no M-class 
flares during the UT day. The strongest flare was C2.4 observed 
at 07/0523 UT from Region 2450. The 2-day outlook (8-9 Nov) is 
for low solar activity with C class flares possible. No Earth-directed 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph 
imagery. The partial halo CME associated with M3.7 flare from 
Nov 04/1352 UT had arrived at Earth near the anticipated time. 
An interplanetary shock associated with the CME hit the ACE spacecraft 
at 06/1735 UTC and arrived at Earth at 06/1825 UTC. As a result, 
the solar wind jumped abruptly from 420 km/s to 600 km/s at 06/1735 
UTC and IMF Bz also fluctuated strongly. The solar wind peaked 
to 720 km/s at 07/0300 UT and thereafter gradually declined as 
the effects of the CME waned. The current solar wind speed is 
around 500 km/s. The IMF Bz at the time of peak solar wind speed 
was strongly southward, near -10 nT. It remained southward for 
at least 10 hours. The combination of strong solar wind speed 
and favourable IMF Bz lead to a major geomagnetic storm during 
the UT day. The IMF Bt was between 10 and 20 nT during the past 
24 hrs. In addition, a very wide recurrent positive northern 
coronal hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on 
the solar disk late on UT day Nov 8. This coronal hole appears 
wider and clearly located further equatorwards compared to its 
size/position in the previous rotation. The solar winds from 
this coronal hole reached up to 520 km/s in the previous rotation. 
A slightly enhanced solar wind magnitudes are expected from this 
rotation. The outlook is for the solar winds to gradually decline 
to near ambient levels as the effects of the CME wanes. Then 
on late hours of UT day 08 Nov or thereabout, the solar wind 
is expected to increase again in response to the arrival of the 
co-rotating interaction region and high speed stream associated 
with the northern coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   33454431
      Cocos Island        17   33344332
      Darwin              19   33354331
      Townsville          22   43454331
      Learmonth           29   44455442
      Alice Springs       20   33454331
      Norfolk Island      23   33554331
      Culgoora            43   336664-2
      Gingin              37   54565432
      Camden              30   33564441
      Canberra            22   33454431
      Launceston          38   34664542    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    68   47676541
      Casey               29   64543233
      Mawson             103   59755653

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           58   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12        


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    25    Active
09 Nov    25    Active
10 Nov    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for 7-8 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
unsettled and at times reached major storm levels during the 
past 24 hrs (07 Nov). The Australian Dst dipped below -100 nT 
from 07/0300 UT to 07/0900 UT and then returned to mostly unsettled 
levels for the rest of the day UT. This active period is caused 
by arrival of the CME associated with M3.7 flare that occurred 
at Nov 04/1352 UT. The two outlook (7-8 Nov) is for the geomagnetic 
to remain at mostly near active levels and at times reaching 
minor storm levels. This is a combined effect of the aftermath 
of CME and the approaching very large recurrent positive northern 
coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8. The AP values from this coronal 
hole reached up to 24 nT in the previous rotation. A slightly 
stronger effect is expected from this rotation. There is a chance 
of aurora sightings are on the evenings over the next two days 
from Southern Australian regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Fair-poor      Poor
09 Nov      Normal         Fair-poor      Poor
10 Nov      Normal         Fair-poor      Fair-poor

COMMENT: The HF conditions has briefly improved over the past 
24 hours due to positive storm effects caused by the arrival 
of the CME at Earth associated with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 
UT. The two day outlook is for the Equatorial regions to continue 
to have slightly improved HF conditions in response to the storm 
effects. In contrast, the high and mid-latitude regions are expected 
to have negative storm effects and depressed MUF conditions. 
After the onset of high speed solar streams from a very large 
recurrent positive northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8, 
the MUFs are expected to remain below the monthly predicted levels. 
HF users are advised to use lower frequencies in the mid and 
high latitudes regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Depressed by 55% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for 6-8 Nov. Observed MUF's for the Australasia 
regions on the UT day 07 Nov were near the predicted monthly 
values. The HF conditions have improved and this is attributed 
to the positive storm effect causing a strong lived enhancement 
in electron density. The two day outlook is for the Equatorial 
regions to continue to have slightly improved HF conditions in 
response to the storm effects. In contrast, the high and mid-latitude 
regions are expected to have negative storm effects and depressed 
MUF conditions. After the onset of high speed solar streams from 
a very large recurrent positive northern coronal hole late on 
UT day Nov 8 or thereabout, the MUFs are expected to remain below 
the monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: 14 %

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    88900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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