[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 7 10:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day 6 Nov, with 4 C-class flares mainly from Regions 2448 and
2449. There were no M-class flares during the UT day. The strongest
flare was C4.4 observed at 06/1804 UT from Region 2449. This
region has recently rotated onto the field of view and is currently
located at S12E74. The 2-day outlook (7-8 Nov) is for low solar
activity with C class flares likely. The partial halo CME associated
with M3.7 flare, which occurred at 04/1352 UT near the centre
of the solar disk, has arrived at Earth as expected. The solar
wind in the first 17 hours of the UT day 06 Nov declined gradually
from ~550 km/s to ~420 km/s as the effects of the high speed
stream from the large equatorial coronal hole waned. At Nov 06/1735
UT, the solar wind jumped abruptly from 420 km/s to 600 due the
shock from the arrival of the partial halo CME. The current solar
wind speed is around 700 km/s. The Bz component of IMF exhibited
strong fluctuations at the arrival of shock from the CME. The
Bz fluctuations ranged between -12 nT and 18 nT. Bz is currently
northward, +10 nT. Meanwhile Bt amplified from 8 nT prior to
the CME to 20 nT post CME arrival. The two outlook (7-8 Nov)
is for the solar winds to remain strong as a consequence of the
CME. In addition, a very wide recurrent positive northern coronal
hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on the solar
disk late on UT day Nov 8. The coronal hole is wider and is located
further equatorwards compared to its size/position in the previous
rotation. The solar winds from this coronal hole reached up to
520 km/s in the previous rotation. A slightly enhanced solar
wind magnitudes are expected from this rotation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 21122244
Cocos Island 8 21111243
Darwin 11 21122244
Townsville 14 31122254
Learmonth 16 31112255
Alice Springs 16 21122255
Norfolk Island 8 20112243
Culgoora 13 322-2244
Gingin 13 30112254
Camden 12 21-22244
Canberra 6 20111233
Launceston 14 21222245
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 22123233
Casey 27 54442245
Mawson 28 54333355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 2143 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
08 Nov 25 Active
09 Nov 25 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 5 November
and is current for 7-8 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions over the
mid and low latitudes of Australasia were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the past 24 hrs (06 Nov). The high latitude experienced
active geomagnetic conditions. The Australian Dst dipped to -40
nT during the first half of the UT day 6 Nov and then returned
to quiet levels for the rest of the day UT. The outlook for next
24 hours is for minor geomagnetic storms due to the anticipated
arrival of the CME associated with M3.7 flare that occurred at
Nov 04/1352 UT. However, major geomagnetic storms could still
occur depending on the IMF Bz orientation. The two outlook (7-8
Nov) is for the geomagnetic to remain at mostly near active to
minor storm levels. This is a combined effect of the aftermath
of CME and the approaching very large recurrent positive northern
coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8. The AP values from this coronal
hole reached up to 24 nT in the previous rotation. A slightly
stronger effect is expected from this rotation. Aurora sightings
are likely on the evenings of 7-9 Nov from Southern Australian
regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Strong geomagnetic activity on 03-05 Nov associated
with the equatorial coronal hole has caused MUFs degradation.
MUFs are expected to remain poor for the next 3 days due the
combined effect of 1) the arrival of the CME at Earth associated
with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 UT and 2) the expected arrival
of high speed solar streams from a very large recurrent positive
northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Nov 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 6-8 Nov. Observed MUF's for the Australasia
regions on the UT day 06 Nov were about 25% below the predicted
monthly values. Strong geomagnetic activity on 03-05 Nov associated
with the equatorial coronal hole has caused this MUF degradation.
MUFs are expected to remain poor for the next 3 days due the
combined effect of 1) the arrival of the CME at Earth associated
with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 UT and 2) the expected arrival
of high speed solar streams from a very large recurrent positive
northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 545 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list