[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 7 10:30:24 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day 6 Nov, with 4 C-class flares mainly from Regions 2448 and 
2449. There were no M-class flares during the UT day. The strongest 
flare was C4.4 observed at 06/1804 UT from Region 2449. This 
region has recently rotated onto the field of view and is currently 
located at S12E74. The 2-day outlook (7-8 Nov) is for low solar 
activity with C class flares likely. The partial halo CME associated 
with M3.7 flare, which occurred at 04/1352 UT near the centre 
of the solar disk, has arrived at Earth as expected. The solar 
wind in the first 17 hours of the UT day 06 Nov declined gradually
from ~550 km/s to ~420 km/s as the effects of the high speed 
stream from the large equatorial coronal hole waned. At Nov 06/1735 
UT, the solar wind jumped abruptly from 420 km/s to 600 due the 
shock from the arrival of the partial halo CME. The current solar 
wind speed is around 700 km/s. The Bz component of IMF exhibited 
strong fluctuations at the arrival of shock from the CME. The 
Bz fluctuations ranged between -12 nT and 18 nT. Bz is currently 
northward, +10 nT. Meanwhile Bt amplified from 8 nT prior to 
the CME to 20 nT post CME arrival. The two outlook (7-8 Nov) 
is for the solar winds to remain strong as a consequence of the 
CME. In addition, a very wide recurrent positive northern coronal 
hole is expected to approach geoeffective position on the solar 
disk late on UT day Nov 8. The coronal hole is wider and is located 
further equatorwards compared to its size/position in the previous 
rotation. The solar winds from this coronal hole reached up to 
520 km/s in the previous rotation. A slightly enhanced solar 
wind magnitudes are expected from this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   21122244
      Cocos Island         8   21111243
      Darwin              11   21122244
      Townsville          14   31122254
      Learmonth           16   31112255
      Alice Springs       16   21122255
      Norfolk Island       8   20112243
      Culgoora            13   322-2244
      Gingin              13   30112254
      Camden              12   21-22244
      Canberra             6   20111233
      Launceston          14   21222245    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   22123233
      Casey               27   54442245
      Mawson              28   54333355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           48   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   2143 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    30    Active to Minor Storm
08 Nov    25    Active
09 Nov    25    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for 7-8 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions over the 
mid and low latitudes of Australasia were mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the past 24 hrs (06 Nov). The high latitude experienced 
active geomagnetic conditions. The Australian Dst dipped to -40 
nT during the first half of the UT day 6 Nov and then returned 
to quiet levels for the rest of the day UT. The outlook for next 
24 hours is for minor geomagnetic storms due to the anticipated 
arrival of the CME associated with M3.7 flare that occurred at 
Nov 04/1352 UT. However, major geomagnetic storms could still 
occur depending on the IMF Bz orientation. The two outlook (7-8 
Nov) is for the geomagnetic to remain at mostly near active to 
minor storm levels. This is a combined effect of the aftermath 
of CME and the approaching very large recurrent positive northern 
coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8. The AP values from this coronal 
hole reached up to 24 nT in the previous rotation. A slightly 
stronger effect is expected from this rotation. Aurora sightings 
are likely on the evenings of 7-9 Nov from Southern Australian 
regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
08 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Strong geomagnetic activity on 03-05 Nov associated 
with the equatorial coronal hole has caused MUFs degradation. 
MUFs are expected to remain poor for the next 3 days due the 
combined effect of 1) the arrival of the CME at Earth associated 
with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 UT and 2) the expected arrival 
of high speed solar streams from a very large recurrent positive 
northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov    35    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Nov    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for 6-8 Nov. Observed MUF's for the Australasia 
regions on the UT day 06 Nov were about 25% below the predicted 
monthly values. Strong geomagnetic activity on 03-05 Nov associated 
with the equatorial coronal hole has caused this MUF degradation. 
MUFs are expected to remain poor for the next 3 days due the 
combined effect of 1) the arrival of the CME at Earth associated 
with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 UT and 2) the expected arrival 
of high speed solar streams from a very large recurrent positive 
northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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