[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 6 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 5 Nov, with no C-class or M-class flares. The strongest
flare was B7.5 observed at 05/2420 UT from Region 2443.The 2-day
outlook (6-7 Nov) is for low solar activity with C class flares
possible. The M3.7 flare, which occurred at 04/1352 UT near the
centre of the solar disk, produced a partial halo coronal mass
ejection (CME) of speed 563 km/s and a Type II radio burst of
shock speed 955 km/s. The associated CME had an earth-directed
component with impact expected late on UT day Nov 06/2200 +/-
6 hours. The solar wind in the past 24 hours was between 500
and 580 km/s. It appears to be gradually slowing down as the
effects of the high speed stream from a large equatorial coronal
hole wanes. The current solar wind speed is around 500 km/s.
The Bz component of IMF ranged between -5 to +5 nT and Bt was
between 5-8 nT. The outlook is for the solar winds to gradually
return to near ambient levels. On late hours of UT day 06 Nov
or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance with the
arrival of partial halo CME from 04 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22333321
Cocos Island 5 11122320
Darwin 8 11233321
Townsville 9 22333221
Learmonth 9 21233322
Alice Springs 10 12333322
Norfolk Island 7 11332221
Culgoora 13 33333322
Gingin 10 21333322
Camden 10 22333321
Canberra 7 11332211
Launceston 14 22443322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 21 12455421
Casey 22 45532332
Mawson 38 44344664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 32 4555 5322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
08 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the mid and low latitudes
of Australasia were mostly unsettled. The high latitude experienced
active geomagnetic conditions. The Australian DST dipped to -30
nT for most periods of the UT day 5 Nov. The outlook for next
24 hours is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly quiet to unsettled
as the effects of the high speed stream from the equatorial coronal
hole wanes. On UT day 07 Nov, minor to major geomagnetic storms
could occur with the arrival of partial halo CME from 04 Nov.
Aurora sightings are likely on the evenings of 7 Nov from Southern
Australian regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Strong geomagnetic activity during the last 48 hours
(04-05 Nov) has caused MUF degradation. With the arrival of another
active period on UT day Nov 7 associated with the 04 Nov partial
halo CME, the MUF conditions are expected remain poor over most
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Nov 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 05 Nov were about 30%
below the predicted monthly values over the Australasia regions.
Strong geomagnetic activity during the last 48 hours (04-05 Nov)
has caused this MUF degradation. With the arrival of another
active period on UT day Nov 7 associated with the 04 Nov partial
halo CME, depressed MUF conditions are expected to continue for
few days (6-8 Nov).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 652 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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