[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 6 10:30:33 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Low                Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 5 Nov, with no C-class or M-class flares. The strongest 
flare was B7.5 observed at 05/2420 UT from Region 2443.The 2-day 
outlook (6-7 Nov) is for low solar activity with C class flares 
possible. The M3.7 flare, which occurred at 04/1352 UT near the 
centre of the solar disk, produced a partial halo coronal mass 
ejection (CME) of speed 563 km/s and a Type II radio burst of 
shock speed 955 km/s. The associated CME had an earth-directed 
component with impact expected late on UT day Nov 06/2200 +/- 
6 hours. The solar wind in the past 24 hours was between 500 
and 580 km/s. It appears to be gradually slowing down as the 
effects of the high speed stream from a large equatorial coronal 
hole wanes. The current solar wind speed is around 500 km/s. 
The Bz component of IMF ranged between -5 to +5 nT and Bt was 
between 5-8 nT. The outlook is for the solar winds to gradually 
return to near ambient levels. On late hours of UT day 06 Nov 
or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance with the 
arrival of partial halo CME from 04 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22333321
      Cocos Island         5   11122320
      Darwin               8   11233321
      Townsville           9   22333221
      Learmonth            9   21233322
      Alice Springs       10   12333322
      Norfolk Island       7   11332221
      Culgoora            13   33333322
      Gingin              10   21333322
      Camden              10   22333321
      Canberra             7   11332211
      Launceston          14   22443322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    21   12455421
      Casey               22   45532332
      Mawson              38   44344664

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           81   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        31
           Planetary             32   4555 5322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov    30    Active to Minor Storm
08 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the mid and low latitudes 
of Australasia were mostly unsettled. The high latitude experienced 
active geomagnetic conditions. The Australian DST dipped to -30 
nT for most periods of the UT day 5 Nov. The outlook for next 
24 hours is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly quiet to unsettled 
as the effects of the high speed stream from the equatorial coronal 
hole wanes. On UT day 07 Nov, minor to major geomagnetic storms 
could occur with the arrival of partial halo CME from 04 Nov. 
Aurora sightings are likely on the evenings of 7 Nov from Southern 
Australian regions, such as Tasmania and Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Strong geomagnetic activity during the last 48 hours 
(04-05 Nov) has caused MUF degradation. With the arrival of another 
active period on UT day Nov 7 associated with the 04 Nov partial 
halo CME, the MUF conditions are expected remain poor over most 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov    25    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Nov    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 05 Nov were about 30% 
below the predicted monthly values over the Australasia regions. 
Strong geomagnetic activity during the last 48 hours (04-05 Nov) 
has caused this MUF degradation. With the arrival of another 
active period on UT day Nov 7 associated with the 04 Nov partial 
halo CME, depressed MUF conditions are expected to continue for 
few days (6-8 Nov).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 652 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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