[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0326UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.6 1203UT possible lower European
M3.7 1354UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 4 Nov. Three M-class flares and a number of smaller C-class
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest
M3.7 observed at 04/1352 UT from Region 2443. This active region
was located near the disk centre (N09W04) at the time of the
eruption. It generated a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
of speed 563 km/s and a Type II radio burst of shock speed 955
km/s. Preliminary investigation suggest that a glancing blow
is likely to arrive at Earth on 7 Nov. More updates will be provided
upon the completion of the model runs. The remaining two M-class
flares (M2.5 and M1.9) were from active region 2445, which is
currently located on the west limb of the solar disk. A Type
II radio burst from M1.9 was observed on the Culgoora and Learmonth
Spectrographs. The M2.5 and M1.9 flares also generated CMEs,
however, none of these two events had an Earth-directed component.
The 2-day outlook (4-5 Nov) is for low to moderate solar activity
with C class flares likely and small chance of M class flares.
This is due flaring potential from Regions 2443 and 2445. The
solar wind in the past 24 hours remained at elevated levels of
600 km/s to 800 km/s, and is showing some evidence for reducing
in intensity. The current solar wind speed is around 600 km/s.
The Bz component of IMF ranged between -10 to +7 nT and Bt was
between 5-10 nT. The strong solar winds are due the high speed
stream from a large equatorial coronal hole. The 2-day outlook
(5-6 Nov) is for the solar winds to gradually decline as the
effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 23 34554222
Cocos Island 13 24334221
Darwin 18 34444222
Townsville 26 35554322
Learmonth 26 34555232
Alice Springs 25 35554222
Norfolk Island 24 35553222
Culgoora 19 334442-3
Gingin 23 34455222
Camden 26 35554322
Canberra 21 24554211
Launceston 37 35665322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 52 43776311
Casey 25 36434332
Mawson 34 36545334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 90 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 41
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 28 2355 5453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
06 Nov 20 Active
07 Nov 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels
during the last 24 hours (UT day 4 Nov). The Australian DST dipped
to a low of -83 nT at 04/0724 UT. The two day outlook is geomagnetic
conditions will be mostly active and at times could reach to
storms levels. Active geomagnetic conditions are forecasted for
5 and 6 Nov due to high speed solar winds streaming from a large
equatorial coronal hole. Given that solar winds are still at
strong levels of greater than 600 km/s, and if the IMF Bz turns
strongly southward for prolonged periods, minor to severe geomagnetic
storms could be possible. Aurora sightings are likely on the
evenings of 5 Nov from Southern Australian regions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude
over the next two days due to active regions on the solar disk.
Disturbed ionospheric conditions are currently in effect mainly
at high and mid latitudes due to active geomagnetic conditions
associated with high speed solar winds streaming from a large
equatorial coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% throughout the day
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 04
Nov were about 20% below the predicted monthly values in the
high and mid latitudes regions. There is a chance of isolated
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to active sunspot
regions (Region 2443 and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity during
the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation. As anticipated
the MUF depression occurred first in the high latitude regions
and is expected to expand into mid-latitude regions within the
next 24 hours. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last
for few days (5-7 Nov).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 311000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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