[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:30:24 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0326UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.6    1203UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.7    1354UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT 
day, 4 Nov. Three M-class flares and a number of smaller C-class 
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest 
M3.7 observed at 04/1352 UT from Region 2443. This active region 
was located near the disk centre (N09W04) at the time of the 
eruption. It generated a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) 
of speed 563 km/s and a Type II radio burst of shock speed 955 
km/s. Preliminary investigation suggest that a glancing blow 
is likely to arrive at Earth on 7 Nov. More updates will be provided 
upon the completion of the model runs. The remaining two M-class 
flares (M2.5 and M1.9) were from active region 2445, which is 
currently located on the west limb of the solar disk. A Type 
II radio burst from M1.9 was observed on the Culgoora and Learmonth 
Spectrographs. The M2.5 and M1.9 flares also generated CMEs, 
however, none of these two events had an Earth-directed component. 
The 2-day outlook (4-5 Nov) is for low to moderate solar activity 
with C class flares likely and small chance of M class flares. 
This is due flaring potential from Regions 2443 and 2445. The 
solar wind in the past 24 hours remained at elevated levels of 
600 km/s to 800 km/s, and is showing some evidence for reducing 
in intensity. The current solar wind speed is around 600 km/s. 
The Bz component of IMF ranged between -10 to +7 nT and Bt was 
between 5-10 nT. The strong solar winds are due the high speed 
stream from a large equatorial coronal hole. The 2-day outlook 
(5-6 Nov) is for the solar winds to gradually decline as the 
effects of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      23   34554222
      Cocos Island        13   24334221
      Darwin              18   34444222
      Townsville          26   35554322
      Learmonth           26   34555232
      Alice Springs       25   35554222
      Norfolk Island      24   35553222
      Culgoora            19   334442-3
      Gingin              23   34455222
      Camden              26   35554322
      Canberra            21   24554211
      Launceston          37   35665322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    52   43776311
      Casey               25   36434332
      Mawson              34   36545334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            90   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             41                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28   2355 5453     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    30    Active to Minor Storm
06 Nov    20    Active
07 Nov    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels 
during the last 24 hours (UT day 4 Nov). The Australian DST dipped 
to a low of -83 nT at 04/0724 UT. The two day outlook is geomagnetic 
conditions will be mostly active and at times could reach to 
storms levels. Active geomagnetic conditions are forecasted for 
5 and 6 Nov due to high speed solar winds streaming from a large 
equatorial coronal hole. Given that solar winds are still at 
strong levels of greater than 600 km/s, and if the IMF Bz turns 
strongly southward for prolonged periods, minor to severe geomagnetic 
storms could be possible. Aurora sightings are likely on the 
evenings of 5 Nov from Southern Australian regions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
06 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude 
over the next two days due to active regions on the solar disk. 
Disturbed ionospheric conditions are currently in effect mainly 
at high and mid latitudes due to active geomagnetic conditions 
associated with high speed solar winds streaming from a large 
equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% throughout the day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov    25    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 04 
Nov were about 20% below the predicted monthly values in the 
high and mid latitudes regions. There is a chance of isolated 
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to active sunspot 
regions (Region 2443 and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity during 
the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation. As anticipated 
the MUF depression occurred first in the high latitude regions 
and is expected to expand into mid-latitude regions within the 
next 24 hours. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last 
for few days (5-7 Nov).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 624 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   311000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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