[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 4 10:30:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
3 Nov. There were 4 C-class flares recorded during the past 24 
hours, with the strongest C5.5 observed at 03/1843 UT from Region 
2443.The 2-day outlook (4-5 Nov) is for low solar activity with 
C class flares likely and isolated chance of M class flares. 
A partial halo CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2036 
UTC is classified as a backside event. During the last 24 hours, 
the solar wind increased from 300 km/s to nearly 800 km/s with 
an abrupt jump from 550 to 700 km/s at 03/1100 UT. The current 
solar wind speed is 720 km/s. The Bz component of IMF ranged 
between -25 to +27 nT and Bt was between 3-40 nT. The IMF magnitudes 
were strongest near 03/0700 UT corresponding to the arrival of 
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the recurrent, 
large equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective position 
on the solar disk. The subsequent high speed streams following 
the CIR is keeping the solar winds at elevated levels. The 2-day 
outlook (4-5 Nov) is for the solar winds to remain elevated as 
the effects of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   33544332
      Cocos Island        22   33544342
      Darwin              21   33544332
      Townsville          29   33645342
      Learmonth           27   43555332
      Alice Springs       23   33545332
      Norfolk Island      20   33544232
      Culgoora            15   2-33433-
      Gingin              24   33544442
      Camden              23   33545332
      Canberra            18   23534332
      Launceston          29   34645332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    32   33555452
      Casey               38   56643343
      Mawson              45   35555564

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           30   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0000 3202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    60    Storm Levels
05 Nov    40    Minor Storm
06 Nov    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for 2-4 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions reached 
minor storm levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 3 Nov). The 
Australian DST dipped to a low of -92 nT at 03/1217 UT. The two 
day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly active and 
at times could reach to storms levels. Active geomagnetic conditions 
are forecasted for 4 and 5 Nov due to high speed solar winds 
streaming from a large equatorial coronal hole now taking geoeffective 
position on the solar disk. Given that solar winds are currently 
at very strong levels of 800 km/s, and if the IMF Bz turns strongly 
southward for prolonged periods, minor to severe geomagnetic 
storms could occur. Aurora sightings are likely on the evenings 
of 4 Nov from Southern Australian regions, possibly extending 
at times to Central regions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-poor    Poor
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-poor    Poor
06 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude 
over the next two days due to active regions on the solar disk. 
Disturbed ionospheric conditions are possible mainly at high 
and mid latitudes over the next two days due to forecasted active 
geomagnetic conditions associated with high speed solar winds 
streaming from a large equatorial coronal hole now taking geoeffective 
position on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Nov    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 
67 was issued on 3 November and is current for 3-4 Nov. Observed 
MUF's for the UT day 03 Nov were mostly near the predicted monthly 
values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for 
the next two days due to active sunspot regions (Region 2443 
and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity forecasted for next two 
days are expected to caused MUF degradation. MUF depression are 
expected to occur in the high latitude regions latter today and 
then gradually expand into mid-latitude regions within the next 
2 days. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last for few 
days (4-6 Nov).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    46100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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