[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 3 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
2 Nov. There are several sunspot regions on the solar disk, two 
of these (Region 2443: positioned directly earth facing and Region 
2445: positioned on the northwest limb) are still highly active, 
with complex magnetic structure. A number of C-class flares were 
produced during the past 24 hours mostly from these two active 
regions, with the strongest C7.2 observed at 02/0950 UT from 
Region 2445.The 2-day outlook (3-4 Nov) is for low to moderate 
solar activity with C class flares likely and isolated chance 
of M class flares. A CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 
01/2336 UTC erupted off of the southeast limb. Initial indications 
suggest that the event is not expected to affect Earth. Further 
updates will be provided upon completion of our model runs. During 
the last 24 hours, the solar wind fluctuated between 300 and 
360 km/s. The current solar wind speed is 340 km/s. The Bz component 
of IMF ranged between -7 to +5 nT and Bt was between 3-9 nT. 
The solar winds are expected to elevate at some time within the 
next few hours due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams 
emanating from a recurrent, large equatorial coronal hole taking 
a geoeffective position on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook 
(3-4 Nov) is for the solar wind to remain elevated as the effects 
of the coronal hole wanes. The solar winds from this coronal 
hole reached up to 737 km/s in the previous rotation. Slightly 
weaker solar winds are expected in the current rotation as the 
size of coronal hole is slightly smaller compared to the previous 
rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11013301
      Cocos Island         4   11113201
      Darwin               5   11013301
      Townsville           6   21013311
      Learmonth            7   11124301
      Alice Springs        5   11013301
      Norfolk Island       5   31013201
      Culgoora             5   2211---2
      Gingin               6   11014301
      Camden               5   11013301
      Canberra             4   00013300
      Launceston           8   11124311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   00005400
      Casey               13   34423202
      Mawson               6   22213211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1223 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    50    Storm Levels
04 Nov    30    Active to Minor Storm
05 Nov    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for 2-4 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions were at 
mostly quiet levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 2 Nov). 
The two day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly 
active and at times could reach to storms levels. Active geomagnetic 
conditions are forecasted for 3 and 4 Nov forecasted due to a 
recurrent, large equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective 
position on the solar disk. Aurora sightings are likely on the 
evenings of 3 and 4 Nov from Southern Australian regions, possibly 
extending at times to Central regions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Fair-poor      Poor
04 Nov      Normal         Poor           Poor
05 Nov      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor

COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude 
over the next two day due to active sunspot region. Disturbed 
ionospheric conditions possible mainly at high and mid latitudes 
over the next two day due to the anticipated arrival of active 
geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    35    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Nov    35    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 02 
Nov were moderately depressed compared to the predicted monthly 
values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for 
the next two day due to active sunspot region. Strong geomagnetic 
activity forecasted for 3 and 4 Nov are expected to caused MUF 
degradation. MUF depression are expected to occur first (3 Nov) 
in the high latitude regions and then gradually expand into mid-latitude 
regions within 24 hours. Depressed conditions are expected to 
last for few days (3-5 Nov). Equatorial regions may notice a 
minor improvement in HF conditions due to possible enhancements 
in charge densities. The high latitude ionisations are expected 
to shift into low latitudes due to stronger equatorward motions 
which are expected during geomagnetic storms.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    48300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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