[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 2 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Sequences of mid C-level X-ray flares were observed 
0-6UT and after 16UT on Nov 01. Most of the activity originated 
in AR2443 (N08E26). This region maintains moderate magnetic complexity 
and good potential for C- to M-class flares, with some possibility 
of X-class activity. NW and NE directed CME's of unknown origin 
were observed after 1330 UT in LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed 
was steady at around 350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly 
neutral with some sustained periods of moderate Southward bias 
during the first half of the UT day. The IMF phi angle underwent 
a sustained 180-degree change late in the UT day. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to increase significantly during Nov 
02 with the anticipated onset of a recurrent coronal hole wind 
stream. The originating Equatorial coronal feature is now at 
W20 meridian.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12223111
      Cocos Island         5   12223110
      Darwin               6   12223111
      Townsville           9   23233121
      Learmonth            6   12223121
      Alice Springs        7   13223111
      Norfolk Island       7   22222123
      Culgoora             7   11-----3
      Gingin               6   12223111
      Camden              14   23--5221
      Canberra             5   122-3110
      Launceston           9   23233211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   12344310
      Casey               16   35423122
      Mawson              20   34433351

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   0110 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    60    Storm Levels
03 Nov    40    Minor Storm
04 Nov    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for 2-4 Nov. Regional geomagnetic conditions at 
low to mid latitudes were Quiet with Unsettled periods 03-6UT 
and 09-15UT. At high latitudes conditions were Unsettled to Active 
throughout the UT day. An anticipated high speed coronal hole 
wind stream onset is expected to bring Major Storm levels on 
day one, with magnetic storm conditions persisting into days 
two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitudes 
local daylight hours days one to three. Disturbed ionospheric 
conditions possible mainly at high latitudes due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity days one to three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced 30% 09-11UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts Equatorial/N Aus regions 
days one to three local daylight hours due to active sunspot 
region. Disturbed conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic region 
days one to three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    72000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list