[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 15 issued 2338 UT on 31 Oct 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 1 10:38:07 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1752UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
C9.0 1933UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Active region 2443 (N08E34) produced a sequence of low
to moderate intensity X-ray flares over the UT day Oct 31. The
largest events were an M1 level flare at 1752UT and a C9.9 level
flare at 1933UT. A weak SE-directed CME was observed in LASCO
imagery after 30/1800UT and a more intense NW directed CME of
unknown origin observed after 31/1300UT. AR2443 has grown in
sunspot number and magnetic complexity and is expected to produce
further C- to M-class flares, with some possibility of X-class
events. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 350 km/s.
the IMF Bz component was mostly mildly Northward with brief excursions
to -5nT during the second half of the UT day. Solar wind parameters
are expected to become elevated days two and three of the forecast
period due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
The originating coronal feature is now at solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11122212
Cocos Island 4 11012212
Darwin 5 21022212
Townsville 6 21122222
Learmonth 5 21012213
Alice Springs 5 11122212
Norfolk Island 4 11022112
Culgoora 4 112-----
Gingin 5 11112213
Camden 4 11112212
Canberra 2 00011112
Launceston 6 11123222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 00012311
Casey 18 45432113
Mawson 19 22233236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2001 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 60 Storm Levels
03 Nov 40 Minor to Major Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 2-4 Nov. Observed geomagnetic activity was
Quiet at low to mid latitudes and Quiet to Active at high latitudes.
Expect similar conditions day one of the forecast period. Late
on day one or early on day two a recurrent coronal hole wind
stream onset is anticipated. Recurrence suggests Minor to Major
geomagnetic storm levels may occur, persisting into day three
of the period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitudes
local daylight hours days one to three. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions possible mainly at high latitudes due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed to 30% 02-07UT.
Enhanced to 20% 08-11UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 20% around local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Darwin enhanced 30% local night.
Townsville depressed 10% 03-07UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Mildly depressed after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect similar
conditions next three days. Chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts
Equatorial/N Aus regions days one to three local daylight hours
due to active sunspot region. Disturbed conditions expected S
Aus/Antarctic region days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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