[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 15 issued 2338 UT on 31 Oct 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 1 10:38:07 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1752UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  C9.0    1933UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Active region 2443 (N08E34) produced a sequence of low 
to moderate intensity X-ray flares over the UT day Oct 31. The 
largest events were an M1 level flare at 1752UT and a C9.9 level 
flare at 1933UT. A weak SE-directed CME was observed in LASCO 
imagery after 30/1800UT and a more intense NW directed CME of 
unknown origin observed after 31/1300UT. AR2443 has grown in 
sunspot number and magnetic complexity and is expected to produce 
further C- to M-class flares, with some possibility of X-class 
events. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 350 km/s. 
the IMF Bz component was mostly mildly Northward with brief excursions 
to -5nT during the second half of the UT day. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to become elevated days two and three of the forecast 
period due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
The originating coronal feature is now at solar central meridian.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122212
      Cocos Island         4   11012212
      Darwin               5   21022212
      Townsville           6   21122222
      Learmonth            5   21012213
      Alice Springs        5   11122212
      Norfolk Island       4   11022112
      Culgoora             4   112-----
      Gingin               5   11112213
      Camden               4   11112212
      Canberra             2   00011112
      Launceston           6   11123222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   00012311
      Casey               18   45432113
      Mawson              19   22233236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2001 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov    60    Storm Levels
03 Nov    40    Minor to Major Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October 
and is current for 2-4 Nov. Observed geomagnetic activity was 
Quiet at low to mid latitudes and Quiet to Active at high latitudes. 
Expect similar conditions day one of the forecast period. Late 
on day one or early on day two a recurrent coronal hole wind 
stream onset is anticipated. Recurrence suggests Minor to Major 
geomagnetic storm levels may occur, persisting into day three 
of the period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
03 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor

COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitudes 
local daylight hours days one to three. Disturbed ionospheric 
conditions possible mainly at high latitudes due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Oct    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed to 30% 02-07UT.
      Enhanced to 20% 08-11UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 20% around local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin enhanced 30% local night.
      Townsville depressed 10% 03-07UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Mildly depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts 
Equatorial/N Aus regions days one to three local daylight hours 
due to active sunspot region. Disturbed conditions expected S 
Aus/Antarctic region days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    70600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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