[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 26 09:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly
stayed between +/-4 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
C-class activity. There is some possibility of a coronal hole
effect to strengthen the solar wind stream from 28 May. Two long
filaments on the solar disk visible from earthside, are also
worth observing over the next few days as any eruption from them
would have a good chance of being geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00100000
Darwin 0 00100001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 0 10010000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22100010
Mawson 1 20010000
Davis 53 11123900
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2110 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 5 Quiet
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 5 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three
days with some possibility of unsettled periods on 28 May due
to a possible arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 May 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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