[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 25 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 330 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly 
stayed between +/-4 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated 
C-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11000001
      Gingin               1   11100010
      Camden               1   11000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                2   21110011
      Mawson              10   34210014
      Davis                2   12200001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     5    Quiet
26 May     5    Quiet
27 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
27 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ 
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    38200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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