[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 24 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with two C1 flares from
new region 2353(N07E08). Solar wind conditions are ambient. No
significant flaring activity or solar wind disturbances are expected
in the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01110001
Darwin 2 01110111
Townsville 3 01121111
Learmonth 1 01110100
Alice Springs 1 01110001
Norfolk Island 1 01110010
Culgoora 1 01110001
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 2 01120101
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 1 01111010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 02210001
Mawson 6 01111124
Davis 3 02121111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2101 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next
3 days with no solar wind disturbance expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted MUF values are expected
for the next 3 days with some minor depressed periods possible
due to low levels of ionoising solar flux. Some new sunspot regions
are emerging which is expected to arrest the decline in MUFs
seen over the last few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 70700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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