[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 27 09:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly 
stayed between +/-6 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated 
C-class activity. There is some possibility of a coronal hole 
effect to strengthen the solar wind stream from 28 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110210
      Darwin               2   11100211
      Townsville           4   12201211
      Learmonth            2   01100220
      Alice Springs        2   11100210
      Norfolk Island       3   22010210
      Culgoora             3   11111211
      Gingin               3   12200220
      Camden               3   11111210
      Canberra             -   --------
      Launceston           4   11221210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021100
      Casey                4   12211120
      Mawson              14   33301253
      Davis                5   12212121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     5    Quiet
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 May    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 27 May with 
possibility of geomagnetic conditions rising to unsettled levels 
on 28 May and up to active levels on 29 May due to a possible 
arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during 
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
28 May    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
29 May    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ 
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this 
region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    51100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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