[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 17 09:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             115/66             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with a C2 flare from region 2339 (N12W72) peaking at 15/2329 
UT being the most recent flare of note. None of the three filaments 
observed blasting off from the northern hemisphere appears to 
be geoeffective, although SOHO coronagraph imagery for the last 
of these is not yet available for analysis. Very low to low activity 
is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined 
further to ~400 km/s. The total IMF remained below 4 nT for most 
of the day while the Bz component was mostly neutral. Solar wind 
speed parameters are likely to be be disturbed from late on 17-May 
with the arrival of a CME glancing blow and coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11212011
      Darwin               3   12112011
      Townsville           4   21212012
      Learmonth            4   11212012
      Alice Springs        3   11202011
      Norfolk Island       4   12212011
      Culgoora             3   11212011
      Gingin               4   11113120
      Camden               3   11212011
      Canberra             2   10212000
      Launceston           5   11223011

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   01323000
      Casey                8   33222112
      Mawson              16   53421133
      Davis               10   33323112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2233 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May    25    Quiet to minor storm
18 May    15    Unsettled to Active
19 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 15 May and 
is current for 17-18 May. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Isolated active 
to minor storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Quiet conditions are expected to continue well into 17-May until 
combined coronal hole and CME effects produce disturbed conditions 
possibly to minor storm levels at times, settling somewhat on 
18-19 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely 
on 18-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed briefly by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
18 May    80    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values on 17-May, with depressions on 18-May due to likely geomagnetic 
disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    59900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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