[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 16 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             125/78             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 2339 (N11W58) and 2342 (N17W19). 
The largest event was a C2 from region 2342 peaking at 15/0011 
UT. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, 
with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed declined 
gradually from ~600 km/s to ~480 km/s. Total IMF remained below 
5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 4nT early on, 
recently mostly neutral. Solar wind speed parameters are likely 
to be be disturbed from 17-May with the arrival of a CME glancing 
blow and coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12231122
      Darwin               4   12221011
      Townsville           6   12232022
      Learmonth            8   22332112
      Alice Springs        5   12231012
      Norfolk Island       4   11131012
      Culgoora             7   22231122
      Gingin               7   22232122
      Camden               6   12231122
      Canberra             5   03131011
      Launceston           8   12232123

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
      Macquarie Island    12   02353112
      Casey               11   34332121
      Mawson              18   25532131
      Davis               16   24332252

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           62   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2231 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     8    Quiet
17 May    25    Quiet to minor storm
18 May    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 15 May and 
is current for 17-18 May. Magnetic conditions across the Australian 
region were mostly quiet over the last 24 hours, with an unsettled 
period 09-12 UT. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-May, 
continuing into 17-May until combined coronal hole and CME effects 
produce disturbed conditions possibly to minor storm levels at 
times, settling somewhat on 18-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely 
on 18-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 May    80    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements were observed at Cocos 
Island. Elsewhere over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near monthly 
predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values on 16-17 May, with depressions on 18-May due to likely 
geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 654 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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