[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 11 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 10 May UT. AR 2339
continued to produce low level C class flares. AR 2339 is spreading
in longitude and will rotate through the geoeffective zone later
this week. There is still a chance this region will produce an
M class flare or significant filament eruption. No new CMEs were
launched during 10 May. The solar wind was disturbed during 10
May, probably due to the arrival of a slow, weak CME associated
with a filament eruption on 6 May. Coronal Hole (CH) 667 is now
located in south west quadrant. A Co-rotating Interaction Region
(CIR) ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 667 is expected to
impact Earth during the next 48 hours. The solar wind speed fluctuated
between 340 and 440 km/s during 10 May. There were prolonged
intervals of Bz less than -5 nT conditions during 10 May. At
the time of this report, the magnitude of the IMF is about +13
nT and Bz is about -10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11232111
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 6 21232111
Townsville 7 21233112
Learmonth 6 21232121
Alice Springs 5 11232111
Norfolk Island 5 21232001
Culgoora 5 11232111
Gingin 6 11232121
Camden 4 11222111
Canberra 4 11222101
Launceston 6 11232212
Hobart 5 11232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 11 00354100
Casey 6 22223021
Mawson 18 32333154
Davis 57 23923121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1102 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 18 Active
12 May 20 Active
13 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: A weak, slow CME arrived at Earth during 10 May. Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled during 10 May. The Australian
region Dst index decreased to about -68 nT during 11 UT. The
IMF Bz component is presently about -10 nT. A minor geomagnetic
storm (G1) is possible during early 11 May. A minor geomagnetic
storm may occur during 12-13 May due to the arrival of a CIR
ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 667. The three day outlook
is for unsettled to minor storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be slightly stronger in the Northern Hemisphere, but mostly near
predicted monthly values in both hemispheres.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values at most locations throughout the Australian region
during 10 May. They are expected to remain the same during 11
May. Weak positive and negative storm effects may occur due to
minor geomagnetic storm activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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