[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 15 issued 2332 UT on 11 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 12 09:32:19 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: NA/NA
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/NA
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from five active regions. Filaments observed lifting
off from the northeast quadrant are unlikely to be geoeffective.
Solar activity over the next 3 days is expected to be low, with
a chance of M-class activity. The solar wind speed peaked around
390 km/s and is now ~350 km/s. The total IMF strength declined
from ~10 nT to ~4 nT. The Bz component was southward most of
the UT day, down to -10 nT earlier, then around -6 nT from 08-21
UT. A Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) ahead of fast wind
emanating from a southwest quadrant coronal hole is expected
to impact Earth on 12-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 9 22224222
Darwin 7 2222321-
Townsville 10 23224222
Learmonth 10 22224223
Alice Springs 7 2222321-
Norfolk Island 9 42223211
Culgoora 9 22224212
Gingin 11 2222432-
Camden 9 12224222
Canberra 8 1222421-
Launceston 11 22334222
Hobart 10 22234222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 21 3334541-
Casey 8 3222321-
Mawson 31 5552434-
Davis 10 32323231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA 2224 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 30 Quiet to minor Storm
13 May 30 Active to Minor Storm
14 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 10 May and
is current for 11-13 May. Magnetic conditions across the Australian
were mostly quiet on 10-May, with a brief active period 12-15
UT. The Australian region Dst index dipped to around -65 nT 04-05
UT. A CIR ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to arrive 12-May with conditions possibly reaching minor storm
levels as a result.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 105 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values at most locations throughout the Australian region
during 11 May. Similar conditions are expected for the next few
days. Weak positive and negative storm effects might occur due
to minor geomagnetic storm activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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