[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 10 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 9 May UT. AR 2339
continued to produce C class flares. This region still has the
potential to produce an M class flare. The largest flare of the
day was a C7.4 event peaking at 01:34 UT over the eastern limb.
AR 2325 (N4) which previously produced M-flares is due to return
today. A succession of solar filament eruptions occurred in the
north east quadrant near AR 2339 during 9 May. The strong CMEs
launched toward the north east and east are not expected to impact
Earth. AR 2339 will rotate into the geoeffective zone later this
week. A minor solar wind disturbance arrived at Earth during
08 UT on 9 May. This may have been caused by a very weak CME
associated with a filament eruption observed during 5 May. Another
weak CME may arrive at Earth today, 10 May. Coronal Hole (CH)
667 is traversing the central meridian in the Southern Hemisphere.
A Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) ahead of fast wind emanating
from CH 667 might impact Earth. The solar wind speed has been
fluctuating in the approximate range 360-420 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF is presently about 7 nT and the Bz component has been
very weak.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11031222
Darwin 5 11031222
Townsville 7 11132232
Learmonth 5 10031222
Alice Springs 5 01031222
Norfolk Island 5 01031222
Culgoora 6 11131222
Gingin 3 10021122
Camden 5 01031222
Canberra 3 00021222
Launceston 5 11031222
Hobart 2 00021112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00000111
Casey 5 12121122
Mawson 10 22121115
Davis 6 02231122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3322 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 18 Active
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 7 May and is
current for 10 May only. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
unsettled during 9 May. Australian region K indices reached 3
during 09-12 UT due to the arrival of a weak solar wind disturbance.
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled to active late today
due to the arrival of a weak CME associated with a filament eruption
observed during 6 May. A CIR may arrive ahead of the fast wind
emanating from CH 667.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values at most locations throughout the Australian region
during 9 May. They are expected to remain the same during 10
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 19500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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