[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 7 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.7 05/2211UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was moderate during 6 May. AR 2339
produced the largest flare of the day, a M1.9 event peaking at
11:49 UT. AR 2335 also produced a few low level C class flares.
GONG H alpha telescope images recorded a large Disappearing Solar
Filament (DSF) in the geoeffective sweet spot west of the solar
meridian during 15 UT on 6 May. SOHO LASCO coronograms are not
available for this event yet. A DSF was recorded in the Southern
Hemisphere just west of the solar meridian at 22 UT on 5 May.
SOHO LASCO coronograms show evidence for weak ejecta associated
with this event. The impact on Earth, if at all, is expected
to be minor. A solar wind shock arrived at Earth at 00:50 UT
due to the arrival of the CME launched on 2 May. The solar wind
speed increased to more than 500 km/s and the magnitude of the
IMF increased to 18 nT. An interval of significant Bz southward
conditions occurred during 11-16 UT. Bz decreased to -13 nT during
12 UT. The solar wind speed is presently about 430 km/s and Bz
is about +11 nT. Another interval of significant Bz southward
conditions is possible during 7 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 16 33334431
Cocos Island 13 23323431
Darwin 17 33424432
Townsville 17 33334432
Learmonth 20 33434442
Alice Springs 18 33434431
Norfolk Island 14 33334321
Culgoora 17 33335331
Gingin 19 33434441
Camden 17 33335331
Canberra 19 33335431
Launceston 24 43445432
Hobart 19 33335432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 34 32457332
Casey 20 44533331
Mawson 45 64545562
Davis 16 33433341
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 7 1012 3123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 15 Unsettled to Active
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 4 May and is
current for 6-7 May. A minor geomagnetic storm (G1) occurred
in the Australian region during 6 May. The Australian region
Dst index decreased to about -60 nT and local K indices reached
5 at many stations last night. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to recover toward quiet levels during 7 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 5
May and is current for 6-8 May. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region
and are expected to remain the same during 7 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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