[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 6 09:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.7 22:11 UT possible lower Eastern Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been high during the previous
24 hours. AR 2339 produced the largest flare of the day, an X2.7
event peaking at 22:11 UT on May 5. A 10 cm radio burst to 590
sfu occurred at the time of the X2.7 flare. AR 2339 is located
on the north east limb and the associated strong CME will not
be Earthward directed. AR 2335 has grown in size and complexity
and produced an M2.6 flare peaking at 17:24 UT. AR 2335 and AR
2339 produced numerous lesser C class and M class flares. AR
2335 will rotate into the geoeffective zone toward the end of
the week. GONG Big Bear H alpha images recorded a Disappearing
Solar Filament (DSF) in the Southern Hemisphere just west of
the solar meridian at 22 UT, several minutes before the X2.7
flare on the north east limb. The DSF was launched from a potentially
geoeffective location. When SOHO LASCO observations become available,
they may show an Earthward directed CME. The halo CME launched
toward the east during May 2 is expected to arrive at Earth
late today, May 6, or possibly early on May 7. The solar wind
speed has been approximately 350-400 km/s. The magnitude of IMF
has been steady at about 6 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating
mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11122002
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 4 11122003
Townsville 5 11122113
Learmonth 3 12122010
Alice Springs 4 01122003
Norfolk Island 4 21021003
Culgoora 4 11122012
Gingin 3 10132010
Camden 4 11122003
Canberra 3 11122002
Launceston 5 11132102
Hobart 4 111320-1
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 8 00153000
Casey 6 23212111
Mawson 15 32233135
Davis 11 13324113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2121 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 18 Active
07 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on May 4 and is
current for May 6-7. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the
Australian region during May 5. A minor geomagnetic storm is
possible during May 6-7 due to the arrival of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere today. Short wave fade outs may occur due to high solar
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region and are expected
to remain the same during May 6. Short wave fade outs may occur
due to high solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 74900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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