[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 5 09:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: AR 2335 is the most active region and produced the largest 
flare of the day, a C8.0 event peaking at 0052 UT. AR 2338 has 
also produced a few minor B and C class flares. AR 2335 is showing 
signs of increasing potential for flare activity. AR 2322 (N11) 
previously produced M-flares and is due to rotate into view during 
May 5-6. SOHO LASCO observations show the launch of a halo CME 
toward the east during May 2. This CME is expected to arrive 
at Earth on May 6. The halo CME observed during May 4 is a far 
side event directed away from Earth. GONG Big Bear H alpha images 
show a disappearing solar filament in the north east quadrant 
during 18-19 UT. Any associated ejecta is unlikely to be Earthward 
directed. The solar wind speed has been mostly in the range 360-440 
km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been steady at about 6 nT 
and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range 
-5 nT to +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21212211
      Cocos Island         3   11212110
      Darwin               4   21212111
      Townsville           6   21212222
      Learmonth            4   21212210
      Alice Springs        4   12202210
      Norfolk Island       3   21102111
      Culgoora             5   21212211
      Gingin               6   21213211
      Camden               5   21212211
      Canberra             5   21212211
      Launceston           6   21213212
      Hobart               5   11213211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   00213300
      Casey                8   32322211
      Mawson              11   33322223
      Davis                9   13332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3321 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     7    Quiet
06 May    20    Active
07 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region during May 4. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible during 
May 6-7 due to the arrival of a CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern 
Hemisphere today. They may be slightly depressed at some stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly near 
predicted monthly values in the Australian region and are expected 
to remain the same during May 5.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    77400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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