[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 8 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 7 May UT. AR 2339
produced seven C class flares including the largest flare of
the day, a C5.0 event peaking at 20:00 UT. This region will likely
produce M class flares in coming days. AR 2335 has now rotated
into the geoeffective zone but is decaying. AR 2335 produced
no noteworthy flares during 7 May. GONG H alpha telescope images
recorded a large Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) to the east
of AR 2335 during 15 UT on 6 May. SOHO LASCO coronograms show
a weak partial halo CME associated with this event. This CME
may impact Earth on 10 May. A DSF was recorded in the Southern
Hemisphere just west of the solar meridian at 22 UT on 5 May.
Any weak CME associated with this event may impact Earth on 9
May. The solar wind speed declined during 7 May and is presently
fluctuating in the range 380-420 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF
declined from about 14 nT to 2 nT and is presently about 7 nT.
The Bz component was predominantly northward during 7 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22101211
Cocos Island 3 22101210
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 6 22112222
Learmonth 5 23211210
Alice Springs 4 22101211
Norfolk Island 4 22101211
Culgoora 4 22111211
Gingin 3 22101210
Camden 4 22111211
Canberra 2 12100201
Launceston 5 23101212
Hobart 3 22101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 1 12000001
Casey 4 23211100
Mawson 7 43110210
Davis 3 13210100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 21 3333 5432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 May 20 Active
COMMENT: The Bz component of the IMF was northward within the
trailing side of the CME which arrived at Earth on 6 May UT.
Hence geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region
during 7 May. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be very
quiet today, 8 May. Geomagnetic conditions may be unsettled on
9 May due to the arrival of a very weak CME associated with a
DSF. A geomagnetic storm is unlikely. A second CME associated
with a larger DSF in the geoeffective zone of the solar disk
may impact Earth on 10 May. A minor geomagnetic storm (G1 or
G2) is possible on 10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 5
May and is current for 6-8 May. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were depressed up to 30% at many Australian region stations during
the first half of 7 May UT. This may have been a weak negative
storm effect associated with the minor (G1) storm which occurred
on 6 May. Conditions are expected to remain near predicted monthly
values at most locations throughout the Australian region today,
8 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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