[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 30 10:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only minor C class
flares being produced. Solar wind conditions are ambient with
the IMF Bt reducing back to less than 5nT after the previously
enhanced levels. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at
low levels for the next few days. A coronal hole high speed wind
stream is expected to arrive at Earth in the next day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 32233122
Cocos Island 6 32222111
Darwin 8 32133111
Townsville 9 32233122
Learmonth 11 43223122
Alice Springs 8 32133121
Norfolk Island 8 32133012
Culgoora 9 32233122
Gingin 10 42223122
Camden 8 32223122
Canberra 7 22223121
Launceston 12 33234122
Hobart 10 32234121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 15 32345111
Casey 12 34332222
Mawson 25 45532334
Davis 16 33452222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 0132 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 12 Unsettled
31 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
until the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream within the
next day bringing Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by up to 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may
be observed due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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