[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 30 10:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only minor C class 
flares being produced. Solar wind conditions are ambient with 
the IMF Bt reducing back to less than 5nT after the previously 
enhanced levels. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at 
low levels for the next few days. A coronal hole high speed wind 
stream is expected to arrive at Earth in the next day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32233122
      Cocos Island         6   32222111
      Darwin               8   32133111
      Townsville           9   32233122
      Learmonth           11   43223122
      Alice Springs        8   32133121
      Norfolk Island       8   32133012
      Culgoora             9   32233122
      Gingin              10   42223122
      Camden               8   32223122
      Canberra             7   22223121
      Launceston          12   33234122
      Hobart              10   32234121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    15   32345111
      Casey               12   34332222
      Mawson              25   45532334
      Davis               16   33452222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   0132 1323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    12    Unsettled
31 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
01 Apr    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
until the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream within the 
next day bringing Active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by up to 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few 
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may 
be observed due to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    26400 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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