[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 31 10:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with only minor C class 
flares being produced. Solar wind speed was light ranging from 
375km to 300km with the IMF Bz component remaining above -5nT. 
Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels for 
the next three days. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is 
expected to arrive at Earth on 2 April. LASCO C2 imagery showed 
a partial halo CME first observed on 29/1836UT, it appears to 
be due to activity on the farside of the Sun and therefore not 
geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         3   12110012
      Darwin               2   22100011
      Townsville           3   22110012
      Learmonth            3   22100012
      Alice Springs        2   21100011
      Norfolk Island       1   11000010
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               2   -2100012
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Launceston           2   11110011
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   01010000
      Casey                8   34211112
      Mawson               9   33211024
      Davis                6   23320011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3332 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     6    Quiet
02 Apr    16    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet 
for the next two days, however on day three expect the arrival 
of a high speed solar wind stream to induce Active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    25400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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