[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 29 10:30:33 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at low levels with only minor 
C class flares occurring over the last 24 hours, the greatest 
a C2. Low activity levels are expected to continue for the next 
few days. The IMF Bt is steadily increasing and has reached 15nT. 
This does not seem to correspond to the anticipated high speed 
solar wind stream as the solar wind speed remains below 500 km/s. 
Bz has remained close to zero with a southward excursion between 
around 03-07UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222222
      Cocos Island         7   12321222
      Darwin               5   01222222
      Townsville           7   12322222
      Learmonth            8   12222323
      Alice Springs        5   02222212
      Norfolk Island       5   01221222
      Culgoora             6   12222212
      Gingin               7   11222223
      Camden               6   12222212
      Canberra             4   01221212
      Launceston           7   02322222
      Hobart               6   02322112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   02330111
      Casey               13   25331222
      Mawson              18   13431245
      Davis               13   14432223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2221 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
30 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Mar    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled to Active conditions 
could occur over the next 24 hours at the interplanetary magnetic 
field is elevated such that if the orientation swings southward 
activity would be expected. A high speed solar wind stream is 
expected in the next day is expected to cause Active conditions 
on arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few 
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may 
be observed on the 29th to the 31st of March due to expected 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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