[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 28 10:30:34 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with at most C1 flares 
in the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient. A coronal 
hole high speed stream is expected to arrive within the next 
24 hours. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at low levels 
for the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223211
      Cocos Island         5   22113200
      Darwin               5   12222112
      Townsville           6   22223111
      Learmonth            6   22223111
      Alice Springs        6   22223201
      Norfolk Island       5   22122111
      Culgoora             6   12223111
      Gingin               7   21124211
      Camden               6   22123211
      Canberra             6   12123211
      Launceston           7   22223221
      Hobart               6   12223211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     8   12124311
      Casey               11   34323112
      Mawson              21   54322315
      Davis               16   53333312

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2120 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    12    Unsettled
29 Mar    20    Active
30 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled. A coronal 
hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive sometime in 
the next 24 hours bringing active conditions with a chance of 
minor storms at high latitudes on arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values to up to 20% enhanced 
for the next few days. Some depressions at high and possibly 
mid latitudes may be observed on the 28th and 30th of March due 
to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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