[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 27 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with the greatest flare
over the last 24 hours being a C2 from region 2305 (S09E07).
Solar wind conditions are ambient with the speed dropping below
500 km/s and Bt less then 5nT. M class flares are possible from
region 2305 over the next few days, but unlikely. A coronal hole
high speed wind stream is expected to arrive late on the 27th
or early on the 28th of March UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21202222
Cocos Island 5 21202222
Darwin 6 21202213
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 7 22212322
Alice Springs 6 21202312
Norfolk Island 4 21202211
Culgoora 5 11212222
Gingin 5 21202222
Camden 6 11212213
Canberra 4 11202212
Launceston 6 22202222
Hobart 5 22202212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 11102211
Casey 10 34321122
Mawson 22 43431354
Davis 11 23332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2233 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 20 Active
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so until the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream either late on the 27th or early on the 28th of March
UT. This may produce Active conditions with a chance of isolated
Minor Storm conditions followed by Unsettled conditions for several
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may
be observed on the 28th and 19th of March due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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