[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 27 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with the greatest flare 
over the last 24 hours being a C2 from region 2305 (S09E07). 
Solar wind conditions are ambient with the speed dropping below 
500 km/s and Bt less then 5nT. M class flares are possible from 
region 2305 over the next few days, but unlikely. A coronal hole 
high speed wind stream is expected to arrive late on the 27th 
or early on the 28th of March UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21202222
      Cocos Island         5   21202222
      Darwin               6   21202213
      Townsville           7   22212322
      Learmonth            7   22212322
      Alice Springs        6   21202312
      Norfolk Island       4   21202211
      Culgoora             5   11212222
      Gingin               5   21202222
      Camden               6   11212213
      Canberra             4   11202212
      Launceston           6   22202222
      Hobart               5   22202212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   11102211
      Casey               10   34321122
      Mawson              22   43431354
      Davis               11   23332232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne          109   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2233 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar    20    Active
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so until the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream either late on the 27th or early on the 28th of March 
UT. This may produce Active conditions with a chance of isolated 
Minor Storm conditions followed by Unsettled conditions for several 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few 
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may 
be observed on the 28th and 19th of March due to expected geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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