[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 26 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 8/0 15/0 25/0
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels but has increased significantly
over the last 24 hours with numerous C class flares and type
III radio burst activity observed. The greatest flare was a long
duration C8 peaking at 0446UT from region 2305. This region also
produced much of the other C class flares. No CMEs of significance
have been observed in available satellite imagery. The solar
wind speed remains above 500km/s. Further C class flare can be
expected with a chance of isolated M class flares from region
2305. A recurrent southern polar coronal hole is expected to
elevated the solar wind speed and IMF from late on the 27th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22234222
Cocos Island 8 12233221
Darwin 10 22234222
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 12 22235221
Alice Springs 9 11234221
Norfolk Island 8 21233221
Culgoora 13 42234222
Gingin 10 22233232
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 8 21233222
Launceston 10 22234222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 22252221
Casey 14 34433122
Mawson 20 24434334
Davis 16 23444232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Hobart 65 (Active)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1122 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 25 Mar, a weak (16nT) impulse
was observed at 1322UT. This impulse was at Active levels at
midlatitudes with Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. No significant
activity continued after this impulse. Condition are expected
to be mostly Quite to Unsettled until the expected arrival of
a coronal hole high speed wind stream late on the 27th of March
(UT) bringing Active conditions with a chance of isolated Minor
Storms.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may
be observed on the 28th of March due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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