[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 26 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN     8/0               15/0               25/0

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels but has increased significantly 
over the last 24 hours with numerous C class flares and type 
III radio burst activity observed. The greatest flare was a long 
duration C8 peaking at 0446UT from region 2305. This region also 
produced much of the other C class flares. No CMEs of significance 
have been observed in available satellite imagery. The solar 
wind speed remains above 500km/s. Further C class flare can be 
expected with a chance of isolated M class flares from region 
2305. A recurrent southern polar coronal hole is expected to 
elevated the solar wind speed and IMF from late on the 27th.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22234222
      Cocos Island         8   12233221
      Darwin              10   22234222
      Townsville          10   22234222
      Learmonth           12   22235221
      Alice Springs        9   11234221
      Norfolk Island       8   21233221
      Culgoora            13   42234222
      Gingin              10   22233232
      Camden               9   22233222
      Canberra             8   21233222
      Launceston          10   22234222 

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    11   22252221
      Casey               14   34433122
      Mawson              20   24434334
      Davis               16   23444232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Hobart              65   (Active)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              60   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            71   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1122 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar    20    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled. 
In the IPS magnetometer data for 25 Mar, a weak (16nT) impulse 
was observed at 1322UT. This impulse was at Active levels at 
midlatitudes with Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. No significant 
activity continued after this impulse. Condition are expected 
to be mostly Quite to Unsettled until the expected arrival of 
a coronal hole high speed wind stream late on the 27th of March 
(UT) bringing Active conditions with a chance of isolated Minor 
Storms.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next few 
days. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may 
be observed on the 28th of March due to expected geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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