[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 25 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity is at low levels with the X-ray
background at B levels with 2 C1 flares occurring. Region 2305(S08E36)
remains the most significant region on the disk and continues
to grow. The lack of flaring activity from this region so far
suggests that M flares or greater are unlikely to be produced
over the next few days. The solar wind speed remains moderate
at around 550 km/s with an IMF Bt of around 5 nT with Bz fluctuating
from north to south within that range. Solar wind conditions
are expected to remain similar to current conditions over the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 12123322
Cocos Island 6 12113320
Darwin 8 12123322
Townsville 8 12123322
Learmonth 8 22123322
Alice Springs 8 12123322
Norfolk Island 6 12022321
Culgoora 3 120-----
Gingin 9 22123332
Camden 8 12123322
Canberra 9 12023422
Launceston 13 22134423
Hobart 7 22-----2
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 18 12145521
Casey 19 35433323
Mawson 16 33223532
Davis 25 34334632
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 4523 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled with a brief
period in the middle of the UT day when Active to Minor Storm
conditions were seen at high latitudes. Conditions are expected
to be Unsettled for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
for the next few days over the Australian region. High latitude
regions saw some depressions due to ongoing mild geomagnetic
activity which may continue for a day or two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.7E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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