[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 25 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity is at low levels with the X-ray 
background at B levels with 2 C1 flares occurring. Region 2305(S08E36) 
remains the most significant region on the disk and continues 
to grow. The lack of flaring activity from this region so far 
suggests that M flares or greater are unlikely to be produced 
over the next few days. The solar wind speed remains moderate 
at around 550 km/s with an IMF Bt of around 5 nT with Bz fluctuating 
from north to south within that range. Solar wind conditions 
are expected to remain similar to current conditions over the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12123322
      Cocos Island         6   12113320
      Darwin               8   12123322
      Townsville           8   12123322
      Learmonth            8   22123322
      Alice Springs        8   12123322
      Norfolk Island       6   12022321
      Culgoora             3   120-----
      Gingin               9   22123332
      Camden               8   12123322
      Canberra             9   12023422
      Launceston          13   22134423
      Hobart               7   22-----2    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    18   12145521
      Casey               19   35433323
      Mawson              16   33223532
      Davis               25   34334632

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   4523 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled with a brief 
period in the middle of the UT day when Active to Minor Storm 
conditions were seen at high latitudes. Conditions are expected 
to be Unsettled for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
for the next few days over the Australian region. High latitude 
regions saw some depressions due to ongoing mild geomagnetic 
activity which may continue for a day or two.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.7E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 580 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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