[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 24 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
the largest event a C3 flare peaking at 23/0911 from the east 
limb (S25). Region 2305 (S08E49) developed in interior spots. 
3 new regions appeared, making 9 currently on the disk. No geoeffective 
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed reached a peak around 
700 km/s and is currently ~560 km/s. The IMF magnitude reached 
9 nT, currently 5 nT. The IMF Bz component dipped to -8 nT after 
03 UT and has varied between -5 to +6 nT for the last 16 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33234322
      Cocos Island        11   23233322
      Darwin              13   33234312
      Townsville          15   33334323
      Learmonth           16   33244323
      Alice Springs       12   23234322
      Norfolk Island      10   2323322-
      Culgoora            11   2-2-4322
      Gingin              16   32244423
      Camden              14   23334323
      Canberra            11   23233322
      Launceston          15   33334323
      Hobart              13   33234322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    18   34235412
      Casey               20   44443323
      Mawson              50   65443357

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Hobart              57   (Unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   2354 4112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
25 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled over 
the Australian region for the last 24 hours, with a brief active 
period 12-15 UT (longer in the west). Storm levels were observed 
at times at high latitudes. With the solar wind remaining elevated, 
similar conditions are likely to persist during 24-25 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate overnight MUF depressions observed at Niue 
Island. Darwin MUFS enhanced 15-40% from 05-15 UT. MUFs near 
predicted monthly values elsewhere. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted values for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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