[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 15 issued 2344 UT on 22 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 23 10:44:49 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
two C1 flares, probably from beyond the east limb (N5), peaking 
at 22/2140 UT and 22/2218 UT respectively. Region 2305 (S08E61) 
grew strongly and several new regions appeared. A large filament 
lifted from the northwest quadrant at around 15 UT; its direction 
is yet to be determined. Solar activity is expected to be low 
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 
km/s and is now around 560 km/s. The IMF magnitude peaked at 
14 nT and is currently 9 nT. The IMF Bz component had a southward 
excursion to -8 nT between 05-07 UT and has been positive since 
18 UT, currently +8 nT. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 22/1735UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   23543111
      Cocos Island        14   23543110
      Darwin              16   33543111
      Townsville          18   33553111
      Learmonth           19   33553211
      Alice Springs       16   22553101
      Norfolk Island      13   22543011
      Culgoora            28   2-7-3111
      Gingin              14   22543111
      Camden              14   22543111
      Canberra            14   22543111
      Launceston          18   23544222
      Hobart              15   23543211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    27   23646211
      Casey               22   45543112
      Mawson              35   34753242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Hobart              66   (Active)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gingin              62   (Active)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   4233 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar    20    Quiet to Active
24 Mar    15    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for 22-23 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions started quiet 
to unsettled in the Australian region on 22-Mar. A period of 
active to minor storm conditions occurred 09-12 UT, following 
a period of negative IMF Bz. Quite conditions have prevailed 
since around 15 UT and are expected to persist into 23-Mar. However, 
IMF magnitude remains elevated, so any further Bz southward excursions 
are likely to result in more active periods. Coronal hole effects 
are expected to continue into 24-Mar, abating by 25-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20-30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15-45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Significant overnight depressions were observed over 
the Australian region on 22-Mar. Similar conditions are expected 
for 23 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 630 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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