[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 22 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from region 2303 (N19E22) and from a region beyond 
the east limb (N10). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed varied between 550-700 km/s, with a shock observed by ACE 
at 21/2022 UT. Currently, the wind speed is ~670 km/s. The IMF 
magnitude hovered around 6-7 nT until the shock, and is currently 
11 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT for much of 
the period, and is currently +9 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322121
      Cocos Island         5   22212111
      Darwin               7   22322122
      Townsville           8   22332122
      Learmonth            9   32323122
      Alice Springs        7   22322121
      Norfolk Island       5   21221121
      Culgoora             7   223221-1
      Gingin               8   22323112
      Camden               8   22332221
      Canberra             6   22322111
      Launceston          12   32433222
      Hobart              15   --33----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   32444121
      Casey               20   45443222
      Mawson              30   55553313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Hobart             140   (Severe storm)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              77   (Active)
      Canberra            91   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   4253 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active
23 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active
24 Mar    15    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for 22-23 Mar. Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet 
to unsettled across the Australian region, with active to minor 
storm level periods at high latitudes. Increased IMF magnitude 
after the 21/2022 UT shock suggests likely unsettled to active 
conditions during 22-23 Mar, with minor storm periods possible 
if Bz turns southward.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-normal
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to %30 enhanced during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions were observed in northern 
Australia on 21-Mar. Similar conditions are expected for 22-23 
Mar, with MUF depressions deeper and more widespread if geomagnetic 
conditions worsen.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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