[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 22 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from region 2303 (N19E22) and from a region beyond
the east limb (N10). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed varied between 550-700 km/s, with a shock observed by ACE
at 21/2022 UT. Currently, the wind speed is ~670 km/s. The IMF
magnitude hovered around 6-7 nT until the shock, and is currently
11 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT for much of
the period, and is currently +9 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22322121
Cocos Island 5 22212111
Darwin 7 22322122
Townsville 8 22332122
Learmonth 9 32323122
Alice Springs 7 22322121
Norfolk Island 5 21221121
Culgoora 7 223221-1
Gingin 8 22323112
Camden 8 22332221
Canberra 6 22322111
Launceston 12 32433222
Hobart 15 --33----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 32444121
Casey 20 45443222
Mawson 30 55553313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Hobart 140 (Severe storm)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4253 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
23 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
24 Mar 15 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 March and
is current for 22-23 Mar. Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet
to unsettled across the Australian region, with active to minor
storm level periods at high latitudes. Increased IMF magnitude
after the 21/2022 UT shock suggests likely unsettled to active
conditions during 22-23 Mar, with minor storm periods possible
if Bz turns southward.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-normal
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to %30 enhanced during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions were observed in northern
Australia on 21-Mar. Similar conditions are expected for 22-23
Mar, with MUF depressions deeper and more widespread if geomagnetic
conditions worsen.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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