[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 21 10:30:42 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
a C7 flare from region 2297 (beyond the west limb). An associated
CME appears to be directed too far west to be geoeffective. Solar
activity is expected to remain low for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed varied between 540-660 km/s. The IMF magnitude varied
between 5-7 nT and the Bz component between +/-6 nT. An equatorial
coronal hole is likely to keep the solar wind speed elevated
until 23-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 32432223
Cocos Island 10 33322123
Darwin 11 32332223
Townsville 12 32432223
Learmonth 16 43333333
Alice Springs 11 32332223
Norfolk Island 12 32432223
Culgoora 12 32432223
Gingin 15 42333333
Camden 13 3-432223
Canberra 12 32432223
Launceston 16 43432233
Hobart 13 33432223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 33553343
Casey 27 55543233
Mawson 78 65544387
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 29 5445 5334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
22 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
23 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region
were mostly quiet to unsettled with brief periods of active conditions.
Similar conditions are expected to persist on 21-Mar, with slightly
more active conditions 22-23 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
23 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 70 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions were observed across the
Australian region on 20-Mar, with equatorial enhancements. Similar
conditions are expected to prevail for 21-22 Mar, with further
depressions on 23-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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