[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 21 10:30:42 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
a C7 flare from region 2297 (beyond the west limb). An associated 
CME appears to be directed too far west to be geoeffective. Solar 
activity is expected to remain low for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed varied between 540-660 km/s. The IMF magnitude varied 
between 5-7 nT and the Bz component between +/-6 nT. An equatorial 
coronal hole is likely to keep the solar wind speed elevated 
until 23-Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32432223
      Cocos Island        10   33322123
      Darwin              11   32332223
      Townsville          12   32432223
      Learmonth           16   43333333
      Alice Springs       11   32332223
      Norfolk Island      12   32432223
      Culgoora            12   32432223
      Gingin              15   42333333
      Camden              13   3-432223
      Canberra            12   32432223
      Launceston          16   43432233
      Hobart              13   33432223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    24   33553343
      Casey               27   55543233
      Mawson              78   65544387

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            69   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             29   5445 5334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
22 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active
23 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
were mostly quiet to unsettled with brief periods of active conditions. 
Similar conditions are expected to persist on 21-Mar, with slightly 
more active conditions 22-23 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    70    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions were observed across the 
Australian region on 20-Mar, with equatorial enhancements. Similar 
conditions are expected to prevail for 21-22 Mar, with further 
depressions on 23-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 592 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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