[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 20 10:30:41 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C2 flare from region 2302 (N10, west limb). Low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
is still elevated, though has declined from ~670 km/s to ~590 
km/s. The IMF magnitude reached 8 nT, but is now around 6 nT. 
The IMF Bz component was mostly southward, down to -7 nT, until 
around 14 UT and has since fluctuated between +/-6 nT. The solar 
wind is expected to decline until 22-Mar when coronal hole effects 
are likely to raise it again.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   22445323
      Cocos Island         9   21333222
      Darwin              13   22334323
      Townsville          15   22344323
      Learmonth           16   32344323
      Alice Springs       14   22344322
      Norfolk Island      15   22444322
      Culgoora            18   22445313
      Gingin              18   32345233
      Camden              21   22455323
      Canberra            18   22445322
      Launceston          27   33456323
      Hobart              21   23455322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    54   34577443
      Casey               25   45453233
      Mawson              54   64555347

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Hobart              73   (Active)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             46   5435 6654     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    20    Quiet to Active
21 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
22 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Active to minor storm conditions were observed across 
the Australian region from 06 to 15 UT, with mostly quiet to 
unsettled conditions outside that period. Some active periods 
are expected to persist into 20-Mar, abating gradually until 
22-Mar when coronal hole effects are likely to again produce 
more active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs returned to near monthly predicted values on 19-Mar, 
though some areas experienced mild depressions at times and brief 
periods of poor ionospheric support. Similar conditions are expected 
for 20-Mar, with further improvement by 21-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 580 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   219000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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