[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 15 issued 2332 UT on 18 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 19 10:32:17 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 17/2336UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 flare from region 2297 (S18W71), peaking at 17/2334. 
There were several C-class flares from regions 2297 and 2302 
(N10W67), the largest from the latter a C9, peaking at 18/0751 
UT. The material from a CME associated with the M-class flare 
was directed mostly west. A filament liftoff from 18/0936 to 
18/1322 UT was observed near region 2299 (S04W18), but relevant 
SOHO/LASCO imagery is not yet available. Region 2297 declined, 
while region 2302 (N10W67) showed continued growth. The solar 
wind speed gradually increased to a peak of 762 km/s, and is 
currently ~670 km/s. The IMF magnitude declined gradually to 
5 nT while the Bz component reached a minimum of -11 nT, and 
is currently -5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      30   43455533
      Cocos Island        19   32334533
      Darwin              22   33344533
      Townsville          28   33455533
      Learmonth           41   53356634
      Alice Springs       28   33455533
      Norfolk Island      29   33555522
      Culgoora            33   3-555533
      Gingin              42   53356644
      Camden              31   33555533
      Canberra            31   33555533
      Launceston          38   44655533
      Hobart              34   44555533    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    54   54666643
      Casey               48   45644734
      Mawson              71   55555577

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        36
           Planetary             53                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        46
           Planetary            118   1465 8877     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active
20 Mar    15    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Minor storm conditions were observed across the Australian 
region from 06 to 18 UT, with mostly unsettled to active conditions 
outside that period. Unsettled to active periods are expected 
to persist into 19-Mar, abating gradually thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Fair-normal
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be moderately to significantly 
depressed across the globe on 19-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    60    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Lack of ionospheric support for 
HF communications and/or significant depressions were observed 
across the Australian region on 18-Mar. Moderate depressions 
are expected to persist during 19-Mar, with MUFs returning to 
near monthly predicted values on 20-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz: -13 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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