[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 15 issued 2352 UT on 17 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 18 10:52:55 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest 
event being a C1 flare from region 2297 (S17W63). No CMEs were 
observed. Solar activity is expected to be moderate over the 
next 3 days, with M-class flares still likely from region 2297. 
ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
17/0320 UT anticipating the solar wind shock from the 15-Mar 
CME, which was observed by ACE at 17/0404 UT. The solar wind 
speed jumped from ~400 km/s to ~500 km/s, later peaking at 672 
km/s before declining gradually to around ~600 km/s currently. 
IMF magnitude also increased with the shock, peaked at 36nT, 
and is currently 14 nT. The Bz component has had extended southward 
periods, including most of the last 12 hours, down to -27 nT 
and currently -3 nT. ACE EPAM ion flux, which declined after 
the shock, is now trending upwards again, perhaps indicating 
the arrival of a slower CME component later on 18-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Major 
Storm

Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      56   25466665
      Cocos Island        38   25355555
      Darwin              40   25455555
      Townsville          52   25465665
      Learmonth           60   26466665
      Alice Springs       52   25466655
      Norfolk Island      62   -5455657
      Culgoora            52   25466655
      Gingin              62   34466765
      Camden              56   25466665
      Canberra            52   25465665
      Melbourne           27   254-----
      Launceston          97   25576876
      Hobart              77   25566776    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    90   24577776
      Casey               70   46855545
      Mawson              91   35665687

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Hobart              NA
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            75   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        71
           Planetary            119                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1332 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    50    Storm Levels
19 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 17 March and 
is current for 18 Mar only. In the IPS magnetometer data for 
17 Mar, a weak (43nT) impulse was observed at 0445UT, due to 
the arrival of the 15-Mar CME. Prior to that, magnetic conditions 
across the Australian region were quiet, but afterwards (by around 
09 UT) reached major storm levels across the region. Southern 
Australia is still experiencing major storm levels, while conditions 
are at minor storm levels elsewhere. Storm levels are expected 
to persist for much of 18-Mar, abating by 19-Mar when unsettled 
to quiet conditions are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to significantly depressed across 
the globe on 18-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar     0    40 to 50% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Significant depressions were observed 
across much of the Australian region. Significant depressions 
are expected to persist during 18-Mar, with MUFs starting to 
recover on 19-Mar and returning to near monthly predicted values 
on 20-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:   15.5 p/cc  Temp:    39500 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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