[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 15 issued 2352 UT on 17 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 18 10:52:55 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C1 flare from region 2297 (S17W63). No CMEs were
observed. Solar activity is expected to be moderate over the
next 3 days, with M-class flares still likely from region 2297.
ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
17/0320 UT anticipating the solar wind shock from the 15-Mar
CME, which was observed by ACE at 17/0404 UT. The solar wind
speed jumped from ~400 km/s to ~500 km/s, later peaking at 672
km/s before declining gradually to around ~600 km/s currently.
IMF magnitude also increased with the shock, peaked at 36nT,
and is currently 14 nT. The Bz component has had extended southward
periods, including most of the last 12 hours, down to -27 nT
and currently -3 nT. ACE EPAM ion flux, which declined after
the shock, is now trending upwards again, perhaps indicating
the arrival of a slower CME component later on 18-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 56 25466665
Cocos Island 38 25355555
Darwin 40 25455555
Townsville 52 25465665
Learmonth 60 26466665
Alice Springs 52 25466655
Norfolk Island 62 -5455657
Culgoora 52 25466655
Gingin 62 34466765
Camden 56 25466665
Canberra 52 25465665
Melbourne 27 254-----
Launceston 97 25576876
Hobart 77 25566776
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 90 24577776
Casey 70 46855545
Mawson 91 35665687
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Hobart NA
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 71
Planetary 119
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1332 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 50 Storm Levels
19 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 18 Mar only. In the IPS magnetometer data for
17 Mar, a weak (43nT) impulse was observed at 0445UT, due to
the arrival of the 15-Mar CME. Prior to that, magnetic conditions
across the Australian region were quiet, but afterwards (by around
09 UT) reached major storm levels across the region. Southern
Australia is still experiencing major storm levels, while conditions
are at minor storm levels elsewhere. Storm levels are expected
to persist for much of 18-Mar, abating by 19-Mar when unsettled
to quiet conditions are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to significantly depressed across
the globe on 18-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 0 40 to 50% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Significant depressions were observed
across much of the Australian region. Significant depressions
are expected to persist during 18-Mar, with MUFs starting to
recover on 19-Mar and returning to near monthly predicted values
on 20-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 15.5 p/cc Temp: 39500 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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