[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 15 issued 2333 UT on 16 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 17 10:33:08 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1104UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
the largest event being an M1 flare from region 2297 (S17W49), 
peaking at 16/1058 UT. This region also produced 6 C-class flares. 
Ejected material was observed in association with the M-class 
flare and also from a new region at N10W37, the latter around 
16/1955 UT. A filament liftoff was observed in the southwest 
quadrant, starting around 16/1400 UT. None of the ejected material 
appears to be Earth-directed; further analysis will be possible 
when SOHO/LASCO imagery becomes available. Although region 2297 
appears stable, it is still likely to produce more M-class flares 
over the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 16/0545UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. This 
is consistent with the expected arrival, from late on 17-Mar, 
of a CME that occurred on 15-Mar. The solar wind speed reached 
a peak of 441km/s on 16-Mar, with the IMF reaching a magnitude 
of 14 nT and remaining above 10 nT for much of the day. The IMF 
Bz component was southward between 00-06 UT, to a minimum of 
-12 nT, but has remained mostly northward since. Coronal holes 
at the poles are probably contributing to the increased solar 
wind speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Unsettled to 
Active

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33333321
      Cocos Island        12   33432320
      Darwin              14   33433321
      Townsville          14   33433321
      Learmonth           12   33333321
      Alice Springs       11   23333321
      Norfolk Island       9   23332310
      Culgoora            12   33333311
      Gingin              11   33332321
      Camden              12   33333311
      Canberra             9   23332211
      Melbourne           11   33332311
      Launceston          14   33433321
      Hobart              11   33432211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   23411100
      Casey               24   44552323
      Mawson              14   34422322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1231 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    18    Quiet, with active to minor storm later
18 Mar    25    Active to Minor Storm
19 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 15 March and 
is current for 16-18 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian 
region were unsettled for much of the day, with a brief active 
period 06-09 UT. Conditions returned to quiet levels after 18 
UT. Quiet conditions are expected to continue until late on 17-Mar, 
when the likely arrival of a 15-Mar CME will probably result 
in active to minor storm conditions. Those conditions are expected 
to persist into 18-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly 
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian region during 16-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    52000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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