[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 15 issued 2331 UT on 15 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 16 10:31:09 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: M class flares and long-lived C9.1 flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during Mar 15. AR 2297 produce
a short live M1.0 X ray flare peaking at 09:40 UT. However, the
most significant event of the day was a long-lived and spatially
extensive C9.1 flare peaking at 02:13 UT. There was also a C6.8
flare peaking at 12:03 UT and an M class flare is in progress
at the time of this report. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration
and further M class flare activity is likely. AR 2297 was located
in a geoeffective region at the time of the major C9.1 flare.
Learmonth GONG H alpha observations of AR 2297 show a complex
sequence of events during 00-05 UT, including an initial filament
lift-off toward the south west commencing 00 UT and evidence
for further ejecta toward the west and north west as the C9.1
flare developed. The Culgoora solar radio spectrograph recorded
a Type II event indicating the expansion of a CME through the
corona. SOHO LASCO C3 observations show an initial slow CME propagating
toward the south south west followed by a fast partial halo CME
directed toward north west; the second CME overtook the first.
The ENLIL solar wind model predicts a south west directed CME
will glance the Earth late on Mar 17 or early Mar 18. However,
the combined partial halo CME was composed of multiple structures
ejected over a broad range of azimuth and an impact on Earth
is probable. The solar wind speed has been trending downward
and is presently about 300 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF is
presently about 8 nT. The IMF Bz component was weakly negative
(about -2 nT) until 12 UT on Mar 15, and has subsequently turned
positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12211221
Cocos Island 5 22211220
Darwin 5 12211221
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 6 22222221
Alice Springs 5 12212220
Norfolk Island 4 12211111
Culgoora 5 12211212
Gingin 6 22211230
Camden 5 12211221
Canberra 3 12211110
Melbourne 5 12311220
Launceston 7 23312210
Hobart 9 13311240
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 12332110
Casey 9 23322222
Mawson 16 54322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1221 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
17 Mar 18 Active
18 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 15. CMEs
associated with the long lived, spatially extensive C9.1 flare
of Mar 15 may deliver glancing blows to Earth late on Mar 17
and early Mar 18. Geomagnetic conditions may reach minor storm
levels on Mar 18.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region during Mar 15.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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