[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 15 issued 2331 UT on 15 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 16 10:31:09 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Low

Flares: M class flares and long-lived C9.1 flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             112/63             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during Mar 15. AR 2297 produce 
a short live M1.0 X ray flare peaking at 09:40 UT. However, the 
most significant event of the day was a long-lived and spatially 
extensive C9.1 flare peaking at 02:13 UT. There was also a C6.8 
flare peaking at 12:03 UT and an M class flare is in progress 
at the time of this report. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration 
and further M class flare activity is likely. AR 2297 was located 
in a geoeffective region at the time of the major C9.1 flare. 
Learmonth GONG H alpha observations of AR 2297 show a complex 
sequence of events during 00-05 UT, including an initial filament 
lift-off toward the south west commencing 00 UT and evidence 
for further ejecta toward the west and north west as the C9.1 
flare developed. The Culgoora solar radio spectrograph recorded 
a Type II event indicating the expansion of a CME through the 
corona. SOHO LASCO C3 observations show an initial slow CME propagating 
toward the south south west followed by a fast partial halo CME 
directed toward north west; the second CME overtook the first. 
The ENLIL solar wind model predicts a south west directed CME 
will glance the Earth late on Mar 17 or early Mar 18. However, 
the combined partial halo CME was composed of multiple structures 
ejected over a broad range of azimuth and an impact on Earth 
is probable. The solar wind speed has been trending downward 
and is presently about 300 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF is 
presently about 8 nT. The IMF Bz component was weakly negative 
(about -2 nT) until 12 UT on Mar 15, and has subsequently turned 
positive.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211221
      Cocos Island         5   22211220
      Darwin               5   12211221
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            6   22222221
      Alice Springs        5   12212220
      Norfolk Island       4   12211111
      Culgoora             5   12211212
      Gingin               6   22211230
      Camden               5   12211221
      Canberra             3   12211110
      Melbourne            5   12311220
      Launceston           7   23312210
      Hobart               9   13311240    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   12332110
      Casey                9   23322222
      Mawson              16   54322231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1221 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    12    Unsettled
17 Mar    18    Active
18 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 15. CMEs 
associated with the long lived, spatially extensive C9.1 flare 
of Mar 15 may deliver glancing blows to Earth late on Mar 17 
and early Mar 18. Geomagnetic conditions may reach minor storm 
levels on Mar 18.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly 
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian region during Mar 15.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    44400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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