[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 15 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.3     0440UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             112/63             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during Mar 14. AR 2297 produced 
eleven C class X ray flares and a M1.3 flare peaking at 04:40 
UT. AR 2297 is located in a geoeffective region. AR 2297 was 
less active than during previous days, but it still has a Beta-Gamma-Delta 
configuration. It may produce more strong C class and M class 
flares. Other sunspot groups have formed, but so far they are 
relatively inactive. SOHO LASCO coronagrams show no clear evidence 
for Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed declined during 
Mar 14 and is presently about 325 km/s. The magnitude of the 
IMF was mostly about 6 nT to 7 nT and the Bz component fluctuated 
mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT during Mar 14.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111002
      Cocos Island         2   11111001
      Darwin               3   12111002
      Townsville           4   12112012
      Learmonth            4   -3101002
      Alice Springs        3   12111002
      Norfolk Island       2   11111002
      Culgoora             2   02111002
      Gingin               2   12101002
      Camden               4   12211012
      Canberra             2   02111002
      Melbourne            3   12212001
      Launceston           4   12212002
      Hobart               4   02212---    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   02213001
      Casey               11   24431111
      Mawson              11   34332111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0000 4212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 14. The 
3-day outlook is for quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
due to the possible impact of disturbances emanating from AR 
2297.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly 
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted 
monthly values at Australian midlatitudes during Mar 14. However, 
very strong enhancements occurred at Cocos Island and Darwin. 
The preliminary daily T index values for these two stations were 
178 and 141, respectively. Individual T indices exceeded 240 
at Cocos Island during 08-09 UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    88000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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