[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 12/2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: AR 2297 produced an M1.2 solar flare peaking at 04:01
UT and a M1.8 solar flare peaking at 06:07 UT during Mar 13.
It also produced at least six C class flares including a C6.9 flare peaking
at 07:37 UT and a C6.2 event peaking at 20:46 UT. Solar activity
and the background X ray flux declined during Mar 13. However,
AR 2297 is still magnetically complex and may be the source of
further M class flares. AR 2297 and a solar filament located
to the west of AR 2297 are in geoeffective locations. A CME was
predicted to glance Earth during late Mar 12. A noticeable impact
was not detected in ACE solar wind data recorded at 1 AU. Large
gaps in SOHO LASCO coronagraph images (and the absence of STEREO
coronagraph images) limit our ability to determine the impacts
of ejecta from AR 2297. However, the magnetic connectivity of
AR 2297 to Earth is increasing. It is prudent to assume solar
wind disturbances will affect Earth during the next 48 hours.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
20:50 UT on Mar 12, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over the next 24-36 hours. The solar wind speed is about
360 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of
the IMF was mostly about 6 nT to 8 nT and the Bz component was
predominately northward during Mar 13.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21113111
Cocos Island 4 21123100
Darwin 4 11123101
Townsville 6 21223111
Learmonth Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
Alice Springs 5 21123101
Norfolk Island 2 11012010
Culgoora 3 11112111
Gingin 4 21113100
Camden 4 11113111
Canberra 4 31-12000
Melbourne 4 11113111
Launceston 4 11113111
Hobart 3 --11----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 11025110
Casey 12 44332111
Mawson 7 22123221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Hobart NA
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1323 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
15 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
Mar 13. The 48-hour outlook is for unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions due to the increasing magnetic connectivity of AR
2297 to Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced
strongly at equatorial and tropical locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced slightly
at Australian midlatitudes during Mar 13. The preliminary daily
T index values for Cocos Island and Darwin were 151 and 173 respectively.
The conditions were especially enhanced during 10-18 UT when
individual T indices exceeded 200.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 86400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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