[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2.7  12/2151UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: AR 2297 produced an M1.2 solar flare peaking at 04:01 
UT and a M1.8 solar flare peaking at 06:07 UT during Mar 13. 
It also produced at least six C class flares including a C6.9 flare peaking 
at 07:37 UT and a C6.2 event peaking at 20:46 UT. Solar activity 
and the background X ray flux declined during Mar 13. However, 
AR 2297 is still magnetically complex and may be the source of 
further M class flares. AR 2297 and a solar filament located 
to the west of AR 2297 are in geoeffective locations. A CME was 
predicted to glance Earth during late Mar 12. A noticeable impact 
was not detected in ACE solar wind data recorded at 1 AU. Large 
gaps in SOHO LASCO coronagraph images (and the absence of STEREO 
coronagraph images) limit our ability to determine the impacts 
of ejecta from AR 2297. However, the magnetic connectivity of 
AR 2297 to Earth is increasing. It is prudent to assume solar 
wind disturbances will affect Earth during the next 48 hours. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
20:50 UT on Mar 12, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over the next 24-36 hours. The solar wind speed is about 
360 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of 
the IMF was mostly about 6 nT to 8 nT and the Bz component was 
predominately northward during Mar 13.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21113111
      Cocos Island         4   21123100
      Darwin               4   11123101
      Townsville           6   21223111
      Learmonth      Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
      Alice Springs        5   21123101
      Norfolk Island       2   11012010
      Culgoora             3   11112111
      Gingin               4   21113100
      Camden               4   11113111
      Canberra             4   31-12000
      Melbourne            4   11113111
      Launceston           4   11113111
      Hobart               3   --11----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     8   11025110
      Casey               12   44332111
      Mawson               7   22123221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Hobart              NA
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1323 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
15 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
16 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
Mar 13. The 48-hour outlook is for unsettled to active geomagnetic 
conditions due to the increasing magnetic connectivity of AR 
2297 to Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced 
strongly at equatorial and tropical locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12 
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions 
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced slightly 
at Australian midlatitudes during Mar 13. The preliminary daily 
T index values for Cocos Island and Darwin were 151 and 173 respectively. 
The conditions were especially enhanced during 10-18 UT when 
individual T indices exceeded 200.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    86400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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