[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 14:08 UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: AR 2297 produced ten C class flares and five M class
flares during Mar 12 UT. The largest flare of the day was a M4.2
event peaking at 14:08 UT. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration.
Further M class flares and a X class are possible during the
next 48 hours. AR 2297 will rotate across the central meridian
into a more geoeffective location during the next 24 hours. An
X2.1 flare occurred at 16:22 UT on Mar 11. GONG H alpha images
showed chromospheric ejecta directed toward the east. The availability
of SOHO LASCO coronograms has been patchy recently, and it has
not been possible to determine the direction and width of the
associated CME. However, because AR 2297 was located just east
of the central meridian, a component of the CME is probably Earthward
directed. A solar wind disturbance with an Earthward component
may have been launched in association with one of the numerous
M class flares during Mar 11-12. GONG H alpha observations show
an active solar filament located in a geoeffective position west
of AR 2297 and the solar meridian. The ENLIL solar wind model
predicted the glancing blow from a CME arriving late on Mar 12.
At the time of this report, the arrival is not apparent in the
ACE solar wind data recorded at 1 AU. Solar wind speeds are expected
to increase due to the arrival of fast wind emanating from Coronal
Hole 658 or the arrival of disturbances emanating from AR 2297.
The solar wind speed is fluctuating in the range 400-450 km/s
and the IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range
-6 nT to +6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22232210
Cocos Island 5 22222110
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 6 22222211
Alice Springs 6 22232210
Norfolk Island 4 22221100
Culgoora 5 22222210
Gingin 6 22232210
Camden 7 22232211
Canberra 3 12121100
Melbourne 7 22232211
Launceston 8 23232211
Hobart 13 3323----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 22353220
Casey 11 34332211
Mawson 14 25333211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 0322 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 20 Active
14 Mar 20 Active
15 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
Mar 12. The CME glancing blow predicted to arrive late Mar 12
may still arrive early Mar 13. The geomagnetic outlook for today
is unsettled conditions, reaching active levels if the predicted
CME glances Earth. The four day outlook is for active conditions
due to solar wind disturbances associated with the recent X2.1
flare of Mar 11 or any of the numerous M class flares during
Mar 11-12. There is the possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm
in coming days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical
locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced at Australian
midlatitudes during Mar 12. Conditions were moderately enhanced
at Cocos Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values
for these station were 127 and 117 respectively.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 93800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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