[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4.2     14:08 UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   128/81             128/81             130/84

COMMENT: AR 2297 produced ten C class flares and five M class 
flares during Mar 12 UT. The largest flare of the day was a M4.2 
event peaking at 14:08 UT. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. 
Further M class flares and a X class are possible during the 
next 48 hours. AR 2297 will rotate across the central meridian 
into a more geoeffective location during the next 24 hours. An 
X2.1 flare occurred at 16:22 UT on Mar 11. GONG H alpha images 
showed chromospheric ejecta directed toward the east. The availability 
of SOHO LASCO coronograms has been patchy recently, and it has 
not been possible to determine the direction and width of the 
associated CME. However, because AR 2297 was located just east 
of the central meridian, a component of the CME is probably Earthward 
directed. A solar wind disturbance with an Earthward component 
may have been launched in association with one of the numerous 
M class flares during Mar 11-12. GONG H alpha observations show 
an active solar filament located in a geoeffective position west 
of AR 2297 and the solar meridian. The ENLIL solar wind model 
predicted the glancing blow from a CME arriving late on Mar 12. 
At the time of this report, the arrival is not apparent in the 
ACE solar wind data recorded at 1 AU. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to increase due to the arrival of fast wind emanating from Coronal 
Hole 658 or the arrival of disturbances emanating from AR 2297. 
The solar wind speed is fluctuating in the range 400-450 km/s 
and the IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range 
-6 nT to +6 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22232210
      Cocos Island         5   22222110
      Darwin               6   22222211
      Townsville           6   22222211
      Alice Springs        6   22232210
      Norfolk Island       4   22221100
      Culgoora             5   22222210
      Gingin               6   22232210
      Camden               7   22232211
      Canberra             3   12121100
      Melbourne            7   22232211
      Launceston           8   23232211
      Hobart              13   3323----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   22353220
      Casey               11   34332211
      Mawson              14   25333211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   0322 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    20    Active
14 Mar    20    Active
15 Mar    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
Mar 12. The CME glancing blow predicted to arrive late Mar 12 
may still arrive early Mar 13. The geomagnetic outlook for today 
is unsettled conditions, reaching active levels if the predicted 
CME glances Earth. The four day outlook is for active conditions 
due to solar wind disturbances associated with the recent X2.1 
flare of Mar 11 or any of the numerous M class flares during 
Mar 11-12. There is the possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm 
in coming days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern 
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical 
locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12 
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions 
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced at Australian 
midlatitudes during Mar 12. Conditions were moderately enhanced 
at Cocos Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values 
for these station were 127 and 117 respectively.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    93800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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